015
FXUS63 KDMX 111147
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY FOLLOWED BY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY. BOTH DAYS FEATURING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
- WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE--AND WORSEN--THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. WIND GUSTS
OVER 50MPH LIKELY.
- MONITORING A WINTRY SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING TRAVEL
IMPACTS TO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AS RAIN AND STORMS PUSHED TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT, A BROAD BAND OF
SNOW FROM A NORTHERN STREAM SYNOPTIC SHORTWAVE BEGAN TO ENTER IOWA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS ROUND OF SNOW IS PRIMARILY FUELED BY
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND WILL YIELD LOW-END SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS
REASON. PLACES LIKE ESTHERVILLE COULD SEE AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH, BUT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THAT VALUE, OWED ALSO TO THE
SOIL TEMPERATURES BEING NEAR 40 DEGREES. SUBSIDENCE, CAA, AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY AND COOL WEDNESDAY.
30MPH GUSTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EXIST IN THE WEST DUE IN PART BY A SURFACE HIGH ADVECTING
IN DRY AIR.
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND MAKE THE REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO MORE WAVES THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT OF NOTE WILL DEEPEN QUICKLY AND APPROACH THE
STATE LATER THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL BOOST
HIGHS, AND DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND, BUT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF WIND WILL
BE COUNTERED BY WAA AND LIFT. STILL, THE AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN THE
PBL IS 40KTS AND WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OVER 25MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED IN SOUTHWEST IOWA DUE TO THESE WINDS AND RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY IMPACTFUL
THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN IOWA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
AFTER SUNSET IN TANDEM WITH A PV ANOMALY, ALLOWING FOR MIXING UP TO
AROUND 850MB TO ENSUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT THAT LAYER WILL BE OVER
50KTS, AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL AID IN TRANSFERRING THESE WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. THE NORTHERN-MOST TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN THE AREA WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST, MOST PROLONGED WINDS AS THE 850MB WIND MAX SETTLES
OVER SOUTHERN MN AFTER 1 AM. ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WIND ADVISORY
NEEDED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME, AND A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE
CONSIDERED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AS THE JET MAX MOVES OFF, A NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR ACTIVITY INTO THE EXTENDED. ANOTHER FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
EJECT FROM THE PNW AND INTO THE UPPER ROCKIES, DEEPENING A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. WHILE THERE ARE LOCATION
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL CAMPS, THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT PASSES POINTS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS
COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR IOWA. THE LIKELY CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN IOWA REFLECT THE BAND OF SNOW THAT
WILL SET UP ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. WHEREVER THAT
SNOW BAND SETS UP, IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS
STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND, EXACERBATING TRAVEL
IMPACTS IN THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW (MOSTLY SNOW FROM KDSM AND NORTH)
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, BRINGING IFR
CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY IFR VSBYS WITH IT. KOTM WILL SEE AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF RAIN IN 2 HOURS, BRINGING IFR THERE AGAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCT BY 20Z, THEN CLEAR
BY 00Z. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST AND UP TO
25KTS ELSEWHERE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JIMENEZ
LONG TERM...JIMENEZ
AVIATION...JIMENEZ
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