765
FXUS63 KDMX 120901
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
401 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS NEAR THE WARNING
AREA.
- HIGH WIND WARNING FOR GUSTS 60+ MPH TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WATCH
ISSUED SOUTH FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION TODAY.
- SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY.
NORTHERN IOWA HAS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LOCAL IMPACTS AT
THIS TIME, WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACTS STILL RESIDING IN
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
OVERNIGHT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 20S JUST
ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS AWAY, THIS
DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO LEAK INTO IOWA ALONG THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
THAT SETS UP TODAY. NO EXPANSION TO THE RED FLAG WARNING OVERNIGHT
AS CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT SOME OF THE AFTERNOON MIXING IN THE AREA
TODAY. THAT BEING SAID, RH VALUES NEAR THE EXISTING WARNING MAY
STILL DROP BELOW 30% TODAY AND GUSTS OVER 30MPH WILL BE COMMON.
BURNING IN AND NEAR THE WARNING AREA IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED TODAY.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WINDS THEMSELVES,
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY IN THE SOUTH. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW IN NORTH DAKOTA
AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE WARM SECTOR WIND MAX WILL BE OVER
40KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO NEAR 60KTS OVERNIGHT. LIFT,
CLOUD COVER, AND WAA WILL COMBAT MOMENTUM TRANSFER HERE, SO HAVE
REFRAINED FROM A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW. STILL, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
GUSTS OVER 40MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE STRONGER WINDS COME WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WHILE IT WILL SHOVE THE WARM SECTOR JET AWAY,
THE WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT LOW WILL PARK OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AFTER SUNSET. MEANWHILE, THE CAA AND
PRESSURE RISES FROM SUBSIDENCE POINT TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TONIGHT HAVE FAVORED AN
INITIAL PUSH OF HIGH WINDS WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A MORE
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF WINDS AFTER 06Z WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA.
THE INVERSION SIMULATED IN BETWEEN IS SHALLOW AND WILL ALSO BE
FIGHTING THE DENSITY PUSH OF RAIN-COOLED AIR, SO NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTING MUCH REPRIEVE. THE WIND MAX AND PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVE OUT
BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING
ON THIS ISSUANCE, BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FURTHER
SOUTH TO CAPTURE THE ANTICIPATED EFFECTS OF THE EVENING FROPA.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE AS SOUTHERN IOWA
SITS FAR FROM THE WINDS MAX AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. BEST
CASE, THE WATCH IS REPLACED WITH AN ADVISORY LATER. NONETHELESS,
WINDS OF THIS SPEED WILL MEET THE CALIBER WINDS OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND BRING A RISK OF DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES.
70MPH WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NORTHERN IOWA,
PARTICULARLY AS THE FRONT PASSES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER SYSTEM IS FORECASTED FOR THIS WEEKEND. A
SEASONALLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE COAST
OF THE PNW EARLY SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY DEEPEN A TROUGH
RESIDING OVER THE ROCKIES. TRENDS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN A
SLIGHTLY SOUTHERN SHIFT AS THE JET WILL DIG DEEP, GENERATING HEIGHT
FALLS ON THE ORDER OF AROUND -25 DAM BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERMAL
RIDGING AHEAD OF TIME WILL ADVECT IN ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. THE WARM
SECTOR IN SOUTHERN IOWA WILL BE CONVECTIVE TO START THE DAY. A WARM
LAYER EXISTS ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE STATE TO START AND COULD OFFER A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN UNTIL THE WARM LAYER IS
USHERED OUT BY THE DYNAMIC LOW. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW LOOKS TO
OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW WILL SET UP
SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA (THIS REGION
WILL HAVE ALMOST ALL SNOW FOR THIS EVENT) THEN HEAVY SNOW WILL SET
UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WITH THIS CONTINUED SNOW WILL BE HIGH
WINDS PUSHING SIMILAR VALUES TO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOST NOTABLE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO CAMPS IS WHEN THE TROWAL WILL
FORM (CULPRIT OF THE WEST FLANK SNOW) WITH THE EURO OFFSETTING THIS
PRECIP AXIS INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A SOLUTION SUCH
AS THE GFS BRINGS THAT HEAVY SNOW OVER IOWA INSTEAD, BRINGING MOST
OF THE AREA INTO PLAY FOR WINTER STORM IMPACTS -- SOME POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN
BAND OF SNOW THAT SETS UP EARLY AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE WATCHES
HOISTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE EVENT. MONITORING TRENDS
CLOSELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA. ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
IMPACTS IN THE REGION SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT DROPPED INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
HAS LEFT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PATCHY FOG CLOSE TO SLB. NOT
ADVERTISING ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING, BUT WILL BECOME FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THURSDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL BACK OFF A BIT, BUT REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN INTO EASTERN IOWA. FOD AND DSM ARE
CLOSER TO THE EDGE SO HAVE USED PROB30 UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES WHILE VFR -RA IS SHOWN AT MCW/ALO, THOUGH MAY NEED TO
LOWER INTO MVFR. SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS; HOWEVER, THIS SETUP FAVORS TURBULENCE OVERALL WITH
PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG, GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL ENSUE AROUND AND AFTER 6Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 20S WERE ANALYZED JUST WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE WILL BE USHERED INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA
THROUGH THE DAY ALONG A LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX. RH VALUES WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, THE LOWEST WITHIN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AREA. NO EXPANSION TO THE WARNING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD
COVER MAY STILL INHIBIT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. STILL, HIGH FIRE
DANGER EXISTS NEAR THE WARNING AREA, AND AN EXPANSION MAY BE
NEEDED IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR IAZ004>006-015-016-023>025-033>035-044>047-057>059.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR IAZ007-017-026>028-036>039-048>050-060>062.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ044-045-057-058-070-071-081-082-092-093.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
IAZ070>072-081>083.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
IAZ073>075-084>086.
SHORT TERM...JIMENEZ
LONG TERM...JIMENEZ
AVIATION...ANSORGE
FIRE WEATHER...JIMENEZ
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