628
FXUS63 KDMX 121524
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1024 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS NEAR THE WARNING
AREA.
- HIGH WIND WARNING FOR GUSTS 60+ MPH TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WATCH
ISSUED SOUTH FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION TODAY.
- SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY.
NORTHERN IOWA HAS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LOCAL IMPACTS AT
THIS TIME, WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACTS STILL RESIDING IN
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN WINDS NEARING OR REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE THREE PERIODS OF RELATIVELY SURGING WINDS IN THIS
AREA. THE FIRST WILL COME IN THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. THE
SECOND WILL COME THIS EVENING, WHEN THE STRONGEST GUSTS MAY BE
RECORDED AS THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE THIRD WILL COME BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE RELATIVE LULLS BETWEEN THESE PERIODS, FELT
IT PRUDENT TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WATCH AND REPLACE IT WITH TWO
WIND ADVISORY SEGMENTS FOR ALL COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR, BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING OR RED FLAG
WARNING AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
OVERNIGHT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 20S JUST
ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS AWAY, THIS
DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO LEAK INTO IOWA ALONG THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
THAT SETS UP TODAY. NO EXPANSION TO THE RED FLAG WARNING OVERNIGHT
AS CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT SOME OF THE AFTERNOON MIXING IN THE AREA
TODAY. THAT BEING SAID, RH VALUES NEAR THE EXISTING WARNING MAY
STILL DROP BELOW 30% TODAY AND GUSTS OVER 30MPH WILL BE COMMON.
BURNING IN AND NEAR THE WARNING AREA IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED TODAY.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WINDS THEMSELVES,
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY IN THE SOUTH. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW IN NORTH DAKOTA
AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE WARM SECTOR WIND MAX WILL BE OVER
40KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO NEAR 60KTS OVERNIGHT. LIFT,
CLOUD COVER, AND WAA WILL COMBAT MOMENTUM TRANSFER HERE, SO HAVE
REFRAINED FROM A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW. STILL, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
GUSTS OVER 40MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE STRONGER WINDS COME WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WHILE IT WILL SHOVE THE WARM SECTOR JET AWAY,
THE WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT LOW WILL PARK OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AFTER SUNSET. MEANWHILE, THE CAA AND
PRESSURE RISES FROM SUBSIDENCE POINT TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TONIGHT HAVE FAVORED AN
INITIAL PUSH OF HIGH WINDS WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A MORE
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF WINDS AFTER 06Z WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA.
THE INVERSION SIMULATED IN BETWEEN IS SHALLOW AND WILL ALSO BE
FIGHTING THE DENSITY PUSH OF RAIN-COOLED AIR, SO NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTING MUCH REPRIEVE. THE WIND MAX AND PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVE OUT
BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING
ON THIS ISSUANCE, BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FURTHER
SOUTH TO CAPTURE THE ANTICIPATED EFFECTS OF THE EVENING FROPA.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE AS SOUTHERN IOWA
SITS FAR FROM THE WINDS MAX AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. BEST
CASE, THE WATCH IS REPLACED WITH AN ADVISORY LATER. NONETHELESS,
WINDS OF THIS SPEED WILL MEET THE CALIBER WINDS OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND BRING A RISK OF DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES.
70MPH WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NORTHERN IOWA,
PARTICULARLY AS THE FRONT PASSES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER SYSTEM IS FORECASTED FOR THIS WEEKEND. A
SEASONALLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE COAST
OF THE PNW EARLY SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY DEEPEN A TROUGH
RESIDING OVER THE ROCKIES. TRENDS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN A
SLIGHTLY SOUTHERN SHIFT AS THE JET WILL DIG DEEP, GENERATING HEIGHT
FALLS ON THE ORDER OF AROUND -25 DAM BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERMAL
RIDGING AHEAD OF TIME WILL ADVECT IN ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. THE WARM
SECTOR IN SOUTHERN IOWA WILL BE CONVECTIVE TO START THE DAY. A WARM
LAYER EXISTS ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE STATE TO START AND COULD OFFER A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN UNTIL THE WARM LAYER IS
USHERED OUT BY THE DYNAMIC LOW. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW LOOKS TO
OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW WILL SET UP
SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA (THIS REGION
WILL HAVE ALMOST ALL SNOW FOR THIS EVENT) THEN HEAVY SNOW WILL SET
UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WITH THIS CONTINUED SNOW WILL BE HIGH
WINDS PUSHING SIMILAR VALUES TO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOST NOTABLE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO CAMPS IS WHEN THE TROWAL WILL
FORM (CULPRIT OF THE WEST FLANK SNOW) WITH THE EURO OFFSETTING THIS
PRECIP AXIS INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A SOLUTION SUCH
AS THE GFS BRINGS THAT HEAVY SNOW OVER IOWA INSTEAD, BRINGING MOST
OF THE AREA INTO PLAY FOR WINTER STORM IMPACTS -- SOME POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN
BAND OF SNOW THAT SETS UP EARLY AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE WATCHES
HOISTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE EVENT. MONITORING TRENDS
CLOSELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA. ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
IMPACTS IN THE REGION SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP BEFORE 18Z WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
40KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WITH
ACCOMPANYING RAIN WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z. DUE TO
DRYNESS, CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN MVFR CIGS WITH THE RAIN. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL TAKE OVER AND BE EVEN STRONGER THAN DAYTIME WINDS,
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50KTS COMMON OVERNIGHT (LIGHTER AT
KOTM). 60KT GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR KMCW, KFOD, AND KALO
TONIGHT.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR IAZ004>006-015-016-023>025-033>035-044>047-057>059.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR IAZ007-017-026>028-036>039-048>050-060>062.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ044-045-
057-058-070-071-081-082-092-093.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ070>072-081>083-
092>094.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
IAZ073>075-084>086-095>097.
UPDATE...LEE
SHORT TERM...JIMENEZ
LONG TERM...JIMENEZ
AVIATION...JIMENEZ
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