204
FXUS63 KDMX 121937
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
237 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
NEAR THE WARNING AREA.
- STRONG WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNING
IN EFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR GUSTS POTENTIALLY 60+ MPH
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY SOUTH FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
WITH HEAVY SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALL
POSSIBLE BETWEEN AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND HIGHEST IMPACTS
IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN, WITH CONFIDENCE
STEADILY DECREASING SOUTHWARD ACROSS IOWA. A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR NORTHERN IOWA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
A DYNAMIC 500 MB TROUGH IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
CYCLONE IS QUICKLY SPINNING UP IN RESPONSE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM A
BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS PRODUCING THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, MINNESOTA
AND IOWA, WHILE A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING
INCREASING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS IS SUPPORTING BOTH
THE WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN INTO WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE
TO OUR NORTH WILL SWEEP ACROSS IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, AS A
TIGHT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE LOW MOVES THROUGH,
SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING FURTHER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA, FOR
EXAMPLE THE RAP SHOWS 925 MB WINDS SURGING INTO THE 50-60 KT RANGE
IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO AROUND 01-05Z, THOUGH WITH MIXING
DEPTH DIMINISHING IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS. THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IS CARRIED THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACCORDINGLY, WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING FARTHER NORTH BEGINNING
AT 03Z. INCREASING LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF CLOSER TO THE
PARENT SYSTEM. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SURGES THROUGH OVERNIGHT,
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST AND INCREASE EVEN
FURTHER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA WHERE
PRESSURE RISES AND 925 MB WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST, AND SUPPORTED
BY ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. WHILE SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS IN THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT, THE BULK OF SOLUTIONS AND THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP STILL
CLEARLY FAVOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH IN THE NORTH, AND THE
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED
THAT AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT,
THEY MAY ADD IN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND SUPPORT BRIEF
PERIODS OF ENHANCED GUSTS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
ON FRIDAY THE STORM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY AWAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, REPLACED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING FROM MINNESOTA DOWN INTO IOWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT QUIETER WEATHER WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY THIS BRIEF QUIET PERIOD
WILL BE FAR TOO SHORT, AS BY FRIDAY EVENING AN EVEN MORE IMPACTFUL
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING THE WESTERN U.S. INITIALLY, BRISK 500
MB FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OVER IOWA, THEN ON SATURDAY
AS A HIGHLY ENERGETIC TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S., THE
FLOW OVER IOWA WILL PIVOT TO ZONAL/WESTERLY, THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHES. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL SCOOT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION, SPREADING A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA. INITIALLY IT WILL BE FIGHTING
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE, BUT AS THE RIDGE
SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST SNOW SHOULD FALL MOST LIKELY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT WITH SOME FLAKES POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH AS WELL. LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL PRECLUDE ANY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND ONLY MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED,
BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY TRAVEL IMPACTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA.
WHILE THE LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE AWAY SATURDAY MORNING, IT WILL PROVE
ONLY A TINY SAMPLE OF WHAT IS TO COME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG
500 MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP ALONG ITS FORWARD FLANK WILL CROSS KANSAS
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN TRACK ACROSS MISSOURI, SOUTHEASTERN IOWA, AND
ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY. ALL SIGNS POINT TO A WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF
THIS LOW, AND POPS ARE NEAR 100% ACCORDINGLY. THE AREA OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE WITHIN THE TROWAL REGION THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE, WHERE ENHANCED AND
PROLONGED LIFT AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A SWATH OF
POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL. FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
LOW, RELATIVELY WARMER NEAR-SURFACE AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM
WILL MAKE PRECIPITATION TYPES MORE MIXED, WITH RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS,
A WINTRY MIX, AND SNOW ALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL REDUCE
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE LOW, BUT AT LEAST SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE STILL LIKELY. THE PRIMARY QUESTION AS IT REGARDS
POTENTIAL HAZARDS, THEN, IS WHERE PRECISELY THE LOW CENTER WILL
TRACK, WHEN AND WHERE THE TROWAL WILL DEVELOP, AND WHERE THE
RESULTING SWATH OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIE. THE
BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PAINTED THIS SWATH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, AND FAR
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA. HOWEVER, WITH THE SYSTEM STILL
MORE THAN TWO DAYS OUT AND ACTUALLY NOT EVEN HAVING ENTERED THE
WESTERN U.S. OBSERVATIONAL DATA NETWORK YET, A NORTHWARD OR
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW, VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PASSING CYCLONE, WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALREADY DEPICTING TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS AROUND
55-65 KT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. WHEREVER THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST
SNOW FALLS, THESE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL GREATLY EXACERBATE
IMPACTS WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG WITH
THE STRONG WINDS, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES, WHERE BOTH CONFIDENCE LEVELS AND POTENTIAL
MAGNITUDE OF IMPACT ARE HIGHEST, AND WE WILL BE ASSESSING FOR
POSSIBLE EXPANSION AND/OR UPGRADE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WINTER STORM SYSTEM BEARS VERY CLOSE WATCHING FOR ANY
RESIDENTS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH ANY TRAVEL
PLANS BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
WINDS ARE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY, ALTHOUGH
CLOUD COVER HAS GENERALLY KEPT THE STRONGEST GUSTS AT BAY AT
TAF SITES. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN IOWA. A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL FIRST BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA, MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN IOWA NEAR KFOD, KMCW AND KALO, ALTHOUGH AT LEAST LIGHT
RAIN COULD BE OBSERVED AT KDSM AND KOTM THIS EVENING AS WELL.
FOLLOWING THE RAIN, A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY EXTREMELY WINDY CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30 TO 35 KTS ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN NORTHERN IOWA NEAR KFOD,
KMCW, AND KALO, BUT 40+ KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT FOR A FEW
HOURS AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY,
BUT SHOULD END AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL THEN
DIMINISH AROUND MID- DAY FRIDAY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR IAZ004>006-015-016-023>025-033>035-044>047-057>059.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR IAZ007-017-026>028-036>039-048>050-060>062.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ044-045-
057-058-070-071-081-082-092-093.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ070>072-081>083-
092>094.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ073>075-084>086-
095>097.
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DODSON
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