050
FXUS63 KDMX 131739
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1239 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR
GUSTS POTENTIALLY 60+ MPH THIS MORNING. WIND ADVISORY SOUTH
FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH.
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE.
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
WITH HEAVY SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALL
POSSIBLE BETWEEN AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND HIGHEST IMPACTS
IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN, INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF IOWA. THE WINTER STORM WATCH NOW INCLUDES AREAS OF
NORTH CENTRAL TO CENTRAL IOWA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
A TIGHTLY WOUND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH IT'S CENTER OVER NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN, WHILE OVER IOWA A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED. THIS
GRADIENT, ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT REACHING THE
SURFACE HAS LEAD TO VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE LAST NIGHT AND
INTO THIS MORNING, WITH SEVERAL REPORTED GUSTS UP TO 55-60 MPH ALL
THE WAY DOWN PAST THE I-80 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, EVEN HIGHER OCCASIONAL
GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED LARGELY OVER NORTHERN IOWA, WITH PEAK GUSTS
UP TO 64 MPH AT ESTHERVILLE AND A WHOPPING 69 MPH AT MASON CITY!
OVER SOUTHERN IOWA, GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN REPORTED BETWEEN 40-50
MPH. OVERALL, THE WIND HEADLINES OUT HAVE BEEN VERIFYING WELL, AND
GIVEN THAT EXPECTATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED IN TERMS OF END TIMES FOR
THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES RESPECTIVELY, NO NOTABLE
CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED. EXPECTING WINDS TO DECREASE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH AREAS
WEST OF I-35 ENDING THEIR HEADLINES BY 7AM AND AREAS EAST OF
I-35 ENDING BY 15Z. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SLIGHT
EXTENSION IN TIME TO THE EAST IF WINDS ARE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN, AS A FEW MODEL MEMBERS SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST. WILL
BE MONITORING THROUGH THE MORNING.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN IOWA WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BETTER
SETUP FOR SUFFICIENT SATURATION AND LIFT AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS
SATURDAY MORNING TO SEE SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING AN INCH BY
DAYBREAK. THOSE TRAVELING IN THESE AREAS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR
SLICK CONDITIONS.
THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND OVER THE MIDWEST
PER LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN TERMS OF AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, BUT ESPECIALLY THE COVERAGE
OF GUSTY WINDS THAT OVERALL HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A WIDER AREA
OF COVERAGE IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH OVER IOWA.
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES THIS MORNING HAS LED TO AN
EXPANSION IN AREA OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH FURTHER SOUTH TO NOW
INCLUDE NORTH CENTRAL TO CENTRAL IOWA, EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80, HINGING MORE SO ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS DUE TO
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DESPITE THE LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT A FEW DAYS OUT,
WOULD EXPECT SOME SLIGHT WOBBLES IN THE OVERALL PLACEMENT OF HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, BUT AGAIN IN TERMS OF SNOW PLUS GUSTY WINDS
LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, THE AREA OF COVERAGE HAS INCREASED
IN LIKELIHOOD, HENCE THE WIDER AREA OF THE HEADLINE. FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS AND EVENTUAL CONVERSIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. PLEASE PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR LARGE SCALE TRAVEL IMPACTS
DUE TO HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SURGES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST AND INCREASE EVEN FURTHER, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA WHERE PRESSURE RISES AND 925 MB
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST, AND SUPPORTED BY ANOTHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WHILE SOME
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT, THE BULK OF SOLUTIONS
AND THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP STILL CLEARLY FAVOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
60 MPH IN THE NORTH, AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.
ON FRIDAY THE STORM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY AWAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, REPLACED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING FROM MINNESOTA DOWN INTO IOWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT QUIETER WEATHER WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY THIS BRIEF QUIET PERIOD
WILL BE FAR TOO SHORT, AS BY FRIDAY EVENING AN EVEN MORE IMPACTFUL
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING THE WESTERN U.S. INITIALLY, BRISK 500
MB FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OVER IOWA, THEN ON SATURDAY
AS A HIGHLY ENERGETIC TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S., THE
FLOW OVER IOWA WILL PIVOT TO ZONAL/WESTERLY, THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHES. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL SCOOT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION, SPREADING A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA. INITIALLY IT WILL BE FIGHTING
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE, BUT AS THE RIDGE
SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST SNOW SHOULD FALL MOST LIKELY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT WITH SOME FLAKES POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH AS WELL. LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL PRECLUDE ANY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND ONLY MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED,
BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY TRAVEL IMPACTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHILE THE LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE AWAY SATURDAY MORNING, IT WILL PROVE
ONLY A TINY SAMPLE OF WHAT IS TO COME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG
500 MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP ALONG ITS FORWARD FLANK WILL CROSS KANSAS
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN TRACK ACROSS MISSOURI, SOUTHEASTERN IOWA, AND
ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY. ALL SIGNS POINT TO A WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF
THIS LOW, AND POPS ARE NEAR 100% ACCORDINGLY. THE AREA OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE WITHIN THE TROWAL REGION THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE, WHERE ENHANCED AND
PROLONGED LIFT AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A SWATH OF
POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL. FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
LOW, RELATIVELY WARMER NEAR-SURFACE AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM
WILL MAKE PRECIPITATION TYPES MORE MIXED, WITH RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS,
A WINTRY MIX, AND SNOW ALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL REDUCE
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE LOW, BUT AT LEAST SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE STILL LIKELY. THE PRIMARY QUESTION AS IT REGARDS
POTENTIAL HAZARDS, THEN, IS WHERE PRECISELY THE LOW CENTER WILL
TRACK, WHEN AND WHERE THE TROWAL WILL DEVELOP, AND WHERE THE
RESULTING SWATH OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIE. THE
BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PAINTED THIS SWATH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, AND FAR
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA. HOWEVER, WITH THE SYSTEM STILL
MORE THAN TWO DAYS OUT AND ACTUALLY NOT EVEN HAVING ENTERED THE
WESTERN U.S. OBSERVATIONAL DATA NETWORK YET, A NORTHWARD OR
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW, VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PASSING CYCLONE, WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALREADY DEPICTING TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS AROUND
55-65 KT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. WHEREVER THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST
SNOW FALLS, THESE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL GREATLY EXACERBATE
IMPACTS WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG WITH
THE STRONG WINDS, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES, WHERE BOTH CONFIDENCE LEVELS AND POTENTIAL
MAGNITUDE OF IMPACT ARE HIGHEST, AND WE WILL BE ASSESSING FOR
POSSIBLE EXPANSION AND/OR UPGRADE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WINTER STORM SYSTEM BEARS VERY CLOSE WATCHING FOR ANY
RESIDENTS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH ANY TRAVEL
PLANS BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PROB30 FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAINS AT
FOD/MCW, THE CHANCES ARE DECREASING AND MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED
AT THESE TERMINALS WITH THE DRIER AIR UNDERCUTTING THE
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. AT ALO, CONFIDENCE WAS
SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE THE PROB30. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BECOME
FROM THE EAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND INCREASE ABOVE 12 KNOTS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY WEST OF A MCW-TNU-TVK LINE.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR IAZ033>039-045>050-058>062.
UPDATE...BURY
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ANSORGE
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