179
FXUS63 KDMX 141744
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1244 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES TO A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
THIS MORNING.
- WINTER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY LEADING TO POTENTIAL BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SUNDAY MORNING.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE CENTRAL AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY MORNING.
HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS.
- WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.
A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A LOOK AT RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS AREAS OF PATCHY REFLECTIVITIES
OVER CENTRAL IOWA, AS THE WAVE IN RELATION TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE WESTERN CONUS TRACKS EASTWARD. THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SUFFICIENT, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
THE RADAR RETURNS, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALL REMAINED DRY,
WHICH IS DUE TO THE VERY DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER OF AIR ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA. A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA, A
FEW SITES ARE INDICATING SNOW WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES, BUT
WITH DRIER AIR FURTHER EAST, WOULD NOT EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR AS
IT REACHES INTO IOWA. THIS DRY SETUP REALLY DOESN'T CHANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING, THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY NOTABLE SNOW TO
REACH THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME FLURRIES AND AT MOST A DUSTING
COULD OCCUR, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN IOWA IF
ANYTHING DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND, AS A FEW DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SUGGEST.
THE MOST CHANGES IN TERMS OF RECENT FORECAST TRENDS ALL EXIST WITHIN
THE TIME PERIOD THAT THE WIDELY KNOWN WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE
INITIAL QPF AXIS OF PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER NORTH, WHICH KEEPS
MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF IOWA SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
STILL SEEING A BAND OF ICE GLAZING CAUSED BY MIXED PRECIPITATION
COVERING NORTHERN INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IOWA DURING MUCH OF
THE MORNING, AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WHILE
THE SURFACE HOVERS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. THEREFORE HAVE NOT CHANGED
COVERAGE OR TIMING OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH OVER NORTHERN
IOWA. THUNDER AT TIMES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING IS
STILL POSSIBLE AS GUIDANCE PLACES AT LEAST LOWER VALUES OF
INSTABILITY INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF IOWA.
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, VARIABILITY STILL EXISTS ON THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF AMOUNTS AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE ARRIVES INTO IOWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE NAM, GFS AND EURO HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (OVER 4 INCHES)
MAINLY EAST OF I-35, AND LESSER AMOUNTS WEST, WHILE THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4+ INCHES MAINLY OVER NORTHERN IOWA WITH THIS
SECOND WAVE, AND LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA GIVEN THESE RECENT
TRENDS.
REGARDING WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW ON
WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA, AS 850 WINDS ARE
INDICATED AROUND 60-70 KNOTS OVERHEAD AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH,
WITH STRONG NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW (CAA), WHICH IS A FAVORABLE
SETUP IN THIS REGIME TO PULL DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. HREF AND
NBM PROBABILITIES INDICATE 50% OR GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
OVER 50MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WHICH
HAS LEAD TO THE COORDINATED ISSUANCE OF A HIGH WIND WATCH THAT
COVERS ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA, IN WHICH WILL LATER BE CONVERTED INTO A
WARNING IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN OCCURRENCE. THESE
WINDS WILL CERTAINLY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, REGARDLESS OF OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN AREA,
LEADING TO TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO LOWERED VISIBILITIES, ON TOP OF
SLICK CONDITIONS CAUSED BY ACCUMULATING SNOW. THESE OVERALL IMPACTS
HAVE ALSO LED TO A SLIGHT EXPANSION SOUTH A ROW OF COUNTIES FOR THE
WINTER STORM WATCH, WITH ADDITIONAL EDITS TO THE COVERAGE OF
HEADLINES AND CONVERSIONS OF THE WATCHES TO WARNINGS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
OUR FIRST SIGN OF ARRIVAL FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THIS MORNING, AS A
WING OF THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH THIS WING,
BUT LACKING AT THE SURFACE, MEANING TOP-DOWN SATURATION WILL
NEED TO TAKE PLACE BEFORE SNOW REACHES THE GROUND. THIS HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER WITH RECENT GUIDANCE, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (UNDER AN INCH) ALONG THE
IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER.
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, STREAMING WARMER AIR AND A HEALTHY PLUME OF MOISTURE UP
INTO THE STATE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BROAD SWATH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL MAINLY OVER MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN, AND POTENTIALLY FAR NORTHERN IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THAT SAID, THE RECENT TREND IN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS INITIAL BAND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
WITH MOST OF GUIDANCE KEEPING SNOW OUT OF IOWA THROUGH 12Z ON
SUNDAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DRIER TREND SATURDAY NIGHT, HAVE PUSHED
THE START TIME FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH BACK TO 06Z ON SUNDAY,
WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO EARLY IF THE BAND DOESN'T WIGGLE BACK
SOUTHWARD.
WHILE THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW IS TRENDING NORTH, THESE
SOLUTIONS ALSO RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY BEING PULLED UP INTO IOWA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MAY INHIBIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT, BUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS THE
LOW PASSES OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS, AND SEVERITY LOOKS
LOW GIVEN INSTABILITY VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 500 J/KG. THAT SAID,
THE COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE PROBABILITIES
ARE KEYING ON SOME HAIL PROBABILITIES OVER IOWA AND THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE AN OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL THUNDER AND
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA
EARLY SUNDAY, SO WILL WANT TO AT LEAST KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS IN MIND.
GIVEN THE GUIDANCE TODAY, WHAT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN STORY OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE TROWAL DEVELOPMENT AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
IN ADDITION TO VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE LOW. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE MOST BULLISH ON THIS WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL, SHOWING
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ON AVERAGE, WITH EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG NORTHERN IOWA PUSHING 10"+ BY MONDAY MORNING. THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVERHEAD, WHILE OTHER
SOLUTIONS HAVE IT DEEPEN FARTHER EAST INSTEAD, WHICH RESULTS IN
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND LOWER AMOUNTS IN
CENTRAL IOWA, GENERALLY IN THE 0 TO 2" RANGE. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL ON SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH FOR STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
POSSIBLE, SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. ANY SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR ON
SUNDAY WITH THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS, AT
LEAST WHILE THE SNOW IS FALLING. THEREFORE, WHILE THERE IS A LOWER
LIKELIHOOD OF THE INITIAL HEAVY SNOW BAND IMPACTING NORTHERN IOWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN IOWA FOR THE
POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EVEN IF WE DON'T GET SNOW,
WINDS WILL BE APPROACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE STATE
AS WELL, SO WIND HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW THAT FALLS ON SUNDAY, BLOWING SNOW COULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, IMPACTING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS
WELL.
FINALLY, AS IF THERE WASN'T ENOUGH TO CONSIDER ALREADY WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WE ARE ALSO MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR ICE PELLETS AS THE COLD AIR INITIALLY ARRIVES ON SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS LIKELY WOULDN'T BE LONG LIVED, AS LIQUID PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS OVER TO A SNOWFALL WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES,
BUT A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY STILL LEAD TO A LIGHT
GLAZING OF ICE BEFORE SNOW FALLS ON TOP OF IT. THIS THREAT LOOKS
MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN IOWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT COULD
DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA AS WELL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY BUT STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. THESE
COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN CONTINUE INTO INTO TUESDAY WITH ONE
MORE WEAKER SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST, WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO MELT ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND, WITH THE RETURN OF
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS FROM
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 20-25+ KTS THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY
MORNING. BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS ACROSS IOWA. WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THIS LINE WITH GUSTS
30-40 KTS EXPECTED. THE SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS IOWA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. A
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN IOWA, AS
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES. KFOD WILL SEE THE TRANSITION
FIRST WITH THE FREEZING LINE REACHING KDSM/KOTM JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR WITH THE LEADING LINE
OF RAIN AND THEN TO IFR AS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE APPROACHES. ALSO
EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
PERIOD. GUSTS OF 50+ KTS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AFTER 18Z ON SUNDAY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097.
UPDATE...BURY
SHORT TERM...DODSON
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...HAGENHOFF
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