243
FXUS63 KDMX 280355
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1055 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
IOWA.
- EVEN DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, WITH
A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEARLY ALL OF IOWA, EXCEPTING
FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS, DUE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DANGER. BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FROM AROUND MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND IS SLIDING DOWN TOWARD IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE HIGH IS
SUPPORTING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH
ACROSS IOWA. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AT THIS HOUR, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE
LOWER 50S SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS IS PROMPTING NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, AND RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF IOWA AND OUR SERVICE AREA.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT OVER IOWA TONIGHT, CLEAR
SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID-TEENS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND OF
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. THE STATE OF VEGETATION
IS NOT YET ADVANCED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY FREEZE HEADLINES,
DESPITE RECENT RECORD WARMTH, WHICH IS FORTUNATE OTHERWISE WE
WOULD BE LOOKING AT POTENTIAL AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST, WHILE TO OUR WEST A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE INTO IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 20-25 MPH IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND NEAR 30 MPH IN OUR
NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH SOUTHEAST AND 35-40+ MPH IN
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND EVEN LOWER
DEWPOINTS FORECAST SATURDAY THAN TODAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20% IN MOST OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS BELOW
15% AT TIMES. WE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY, BUT IT WILL BE THIN ENOUGH AND LATE
ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT SUFFICIENTLY REDUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OR MIXING/WINDS. IN ANY EVENT, THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN A VERY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER, AND A RED FLAG
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. IN ADDITION,
THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND
ADVISORY AT LEAST IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
ALGONA, CARROLL, AND ESTHERVILLE, HOWEVER, WITH THE FOCUS BEING
ON CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AND A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA, NO ADVISORY HAS YET BEEN ISSUED. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE ONE MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A STEADY
WARMING TREND AND NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
ON MONDAY THE 500 MB FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE
MIDWEST, AS A COMPACT BUT ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. THAT TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EASTWARD
ALONG THE CANADA BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE TROUGH ALONG THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE,
AND BY MONDAY EVENING WILL STRETCH FROM AROUND EASTERN COLORADO
UP INTO PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY, SOUTHERLY WINDS IN IOWA WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
UP TO EVEN HIGHER LEVELS, PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S. A
MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUCH THAT ON MONDAY
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES OR
EVEN HIGHER, MITIGATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO SOME EXTENT. AS
THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES BY SUBSEQUENTLY IT WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH IOWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING COOLER WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS
THEREAFTER. THE BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM AND RELATIVELY MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPORT SOME
INSTABILITY AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA, AGAIN, FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT VARIATION AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE RESULTING DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG/NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THUS REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AND WILL BE BETTER
DETERMINED IN THE COMING DAYS.
THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
MID-40S TO MID-50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE, FILTERING IN
DRIER AIR AND LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID, A
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING OVER THE MIDWEST AROUND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MAY STILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN IOWA, MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS, DEPENDING
ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THAT TIME, AND CHANCE (30-40%) POPS ARE MAINTAINED
DURING THIS TIME. LATER NEXT WEEK, A DEEPER 500 MB TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND BRING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
IOWA, PROMOTING ANOTHER WARMING/MOISTENING TREND AND A RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, AT THIS RANGE
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN PHASING AND TIMING AMONG
THE GLOBAL MODELS, AND DETAILS ARE VERY MURKY AS A RESULT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VARIABLE WINDS
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 10Z, THEN INCREASING IN
GUSTINESS THROUGH THE MORNING. GUSTS OVER 35KTS WILL BE COMMON
FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS WILL REMAIN AFTER
SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED TODAY,
RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY CLOSER TO 30-35%. HOWEVER,
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH, AND OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER, AND WITH VERY DRY AND CURED SURFACE FUELS, THE RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR
SERVICE AREA. BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND BECOME EVEN
STRONGER, REACHING SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH
OR POSSIBLY HIGHER. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DOWN TO LOWER LEVELS, IN THE 15-20% RANGE AND POSSIBLY
BELOW 15% IN SOME AREAS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY
AND BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097.
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...JIMENEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEE
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