415
FXUS63 KDMX 281724
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1224 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY. DO NOT BURN!
- WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE 70S AND INTO THE 80S
BY MONDAY.
- COLD FRONT TUESDAY BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA.
ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED ACROSS IOWA OVERNIGHT, CREATING A CLOUD
FREE, LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURE TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALREADY IN THE 20S AND A FEW
SITES REPORTING UPPER TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH SUNRISE WITH A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THEREAFTER,
CONDITIONS CHANGE QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AS A BROAD SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS IOWA, RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND
15-20%. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AID IN DEEP MIXING, FURTHER
INCREASING WIND POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST. EXPECT
GUSTS OF 40-45+ MPH IN THIS AREA. CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IOWA CAN
EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-35+ MPH. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT TODAY. DO NOT BURN.
AS THE WESTERN SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY IT WILL HELP TAP
INTO DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO IOWA. THIS
WILL HELP TO MITIGATE FIRE CONCERNS ON SUNDAY AND PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST, IOWA WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S, WHICH COULD NEAR RECORD VALUES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT MONDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF
THIS CONVECTION WITH THE WARM FRONT WOBBLING RUN TO RUN AND
MODEL TO MODEL. BY TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS IOWA.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR AVAILABLE, STRONGER STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THESE STORMS IS STILL TO
BE DETERMINED IN THE COMING DAYS. CURRENT MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL BE SUCH THAT MORE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
THE WEEK REMAINS ACTIVE WITH A PAIR OF LARGE SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE STORM TRACKS AND THUS POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO IOWA.
AT THE VERY LEAST, EXPECT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE BETTER EVALUATED IN
THE DAYS TO COME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
THE TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ALL THEIR BASES WILL BE ABOVE FL090 OR SO.
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL DIMINISH SOME INTO TONIGHT, BUT
WILL STILL BE BREEZY AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS. WITH AN
INVERSION DEVELOPING AND WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER STRONGER,
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS). HOWEVER, THE
MAGNITUDE IS JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS SO HAVE OMITTED THIS MARGINAL
LLWS FOR NOW. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL INCREASE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING TO BE BETWEEN 11 AND 16 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ004>007-
015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097.
SHORT TERM...HAGENHOFF
LONG TERM...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...ANSORGE
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