523
FXUS63 KDMX 290749
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
249 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S TODAY AND LOW TO MID 80S BY MONDAY
(RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE). ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE SOUTH TODAY AND WEST ON MONDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA WITH
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.
- COOLER TUESDAY WITH MULTIPLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
BREEZY WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT WITH THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION
SETTING UP. THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS PARKED TO THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR
AND INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE GULF ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINT VALUES WILL ALSO RISE INTO 35-40F
RANGE. THIS IS AN IMPROVEMENT OVER CONDITIONS YESTERDAY, HOWEVER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE AROUND 35% THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND REMAIN BREEZY TODAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH 25+ MPH GUSTS TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN
SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
BY MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA, WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND PLACING IOWA FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR. WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS IOWA, SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NEAR OR BREAK RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW). MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES INTO THE AREA, THOUGH
WESTERN IOWA WILL BE DRIER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 30%
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE ANOTHER WINDOW FOR ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS TO PULL IN DEEPER
MOISTURE. MOST INDICATIONS ARE TOWARDS DEVELOPMENT IN THE
03-06Z TIME FRAME, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WITH STORMS MOVING WEST
TO EAST ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA, THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN IOWA AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT MLCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH AROUND 30-40
KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH A
DECENT EML IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE LOW
LEVELS. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH 7-8 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A STRONGER GUST TO MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE, GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WE
MAY SEE STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS IOWA WILL VARY WITH LOW 50S IN THE NORTH TO MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WIND BECOMES BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IS LOOKS
LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA TO NORTHERN
MISSOURI BY THE TIME DEVELOPMENT OCCURS, NARROWING THE WINDOW
FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS IN IOWA. CURRENT POPS ARE LIKELY
OVERDONE ON TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
IOWA. THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE PULLED SOUTH BASED ON THE
CURRENT EXPECTED EVOLUTION. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WAVE WILL LIFT
INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE A FEW FLAKES COULD
MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AS SOUNDINGS SHOW A FEW HOURS WITH A FULLY
SATURATED COLUMN BELOW 0C AND GOOD ICE INTRODUCTION THROUGH THE
SHALLOW DGZ. THE ACTIVE WEEK CONTINUES AS AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US BY THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO IOWA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, A SCT DECK OF 4KFT CIGS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS OVER 20KTS IN THE SOUTH. A BKN DECK WILL FORM ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA, AFFECTING MOSTLY OTM AFTER 18Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SELECT CENTRAL IOWA
CITIES...
=============================================
| MONDAY | PERIOD
| FORECAST RECORD/ | OF
CITY | HIGH YEAR | RECORD
=============================================
DES MOINES 85 83/1968 1878-
MASON CITY 79 78/1967 1903-
OTTUMWA 84 83/1967 1923-
WATERLOO 81 84/1967 1895-
=============================================
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAGENHOFF
LONG TERM...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...JIMENEZ
CLIMATE...HAGENHOFF
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