294
FXUS63 KDMX 300756
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
256 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM TODAY WITH RECORD HEAT EXPECTED FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN IOWA
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY 25-30% AND BREEZY SOUTH WIND.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST IOWA
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- TUESDAY COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON TUESDAY
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS IOWA EARLY THIS MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO USHER IN WARMER, MORE MOIST AIR. THE SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT DRAPED NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS
IOWA TODAY, THREATENING RECORDS FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE
TODAY, BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS INTO EASTERN IOWA. WESTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE 25-30% RANGE. AT THE SAME TIME, WINDS WILL GUST 20-25+ MPH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER WINDS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE AREA WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AS IT MEETS THE WARM FRONT. DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED IN CENTRAL IOWA AROUND 00-03Z WITH ACTIVITY MOVING
EAST OVERNIGHT AND CLEARING OUR AREA BY 05-07Z. EXPECT ELEVATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATING A DECENT EML
IN PLACE. MLCAPE EXCEEDS 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM, SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL AS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WINDS REMAIN A SECONDARY HAZARD, ESPECIALLY
FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WHERE
SOUNDINGS HAVE A BETTER DRY LAYER THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP BETTER COLD POOLS THEY WOULD ALSO
INCREASE THE WIND THREAT. AT THIS TIME, THIS IS A MORE ISOLATED
HAZARD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, TUESDAY MARKS THE TRANSITION
DAY FOR IOWA. AS THE LOW PULLS EAST A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
TO HIGHS ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHERN IOWA IN THE LOW 50S WHILE
SOUTHEAST IOWA IS ABLE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THERE IS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35+ MPH
INDICATED BY MIXING IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE STRONGER GUSTS ARE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. THE COLD FRONT WITH SHUNT THE DEEP
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY,
WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA LATE IN THE
DAY AS THAT AREA HAS A LONGER WINDOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST
IOWA, HOWEVER MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA.
THE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER MESSY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
LIFTS INTO IOWA WITH INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS
IOWA. BY THURSDAY, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF WET SNOW.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE DGZ
WITH MOST OF THE COLUMN BELOW 0C FOR PERIOD IN NORTHERN IOWA.
TOWARDS CENTRAL IOWA THE WARM NOSE OCCASIONALLY WARM TO 2-3C
WITH COOLING BACK TO AROUND 0 TO -1C AT THE SURFACE. THE WARM
NOSE IS NOT OVERLY DEEP AND THE SURFACE IS NOT SHARPLY COLD,
REDUCING ANY MAJOR ICING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. A SLOPPY
RAIN/SNOW MIX AND PARTIALLY MELTED FLAKES ARE THE MOST LIKELY
MIX IN THIS SCENARIO, BUT WORTH MONITORING FOR CHANGES TO THE
THERMAL PROFILE IN THIS PERIOD.
A MORE ROBUST WESTER US TROUGH WILL AMPLIFIED AS IT MOVES EAST,
REACHING THE AREA BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS PLENTY OF
TIME FOR THE DETAILS TO CHANGE, BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE RISK FRIDAY. THEN WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY THAT COULD FALL INTO THE WET FLAKE
CATEGORY ONCE AGAIN DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF COOLING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE ADDED IN
PROB30 MENTIONS FOR SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE IS LOW ENOUGH FOR
MENTIONS TO BE EXCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SELECT CENTRAL IOWA
CITIES...
=============================================
| MONDAY | PERIOD
| FORECAST RECORD/ | OF
CITY | HIGH YEAR | RECORD
=============================================
DES MOINES 85 83/1968 1878-
MASON CITY 80 78/1967 1903-
OTTUMWA 85 83/1967 1923-
WATERLOO 81 84/1967 1895-
=============================================
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAGENHOFF
LONG TERM...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...JIMENEZ
CLIMATE...HAGENHOFF
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