961
FXUS63 KDMX 311728
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1228 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT ACROSS IOWA TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS GUSTING
25- 35+ MPH BEHIND THE FRONT.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY CLIPPING SOUTHEAST IOWA. NON-
SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERCOLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY, A FEW
SEVERE POSSIBLE FAR SOUTHERN IOWA. SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN NORTH, A WINTRY MIX IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA WITH THE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 50S IN NORTHERN IOWA NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN IOWA ON THE WARM SIDE. STORMS ALONG
THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY EVENING HAVE LARGELY PUSHED EAST OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW
LEVEL JET PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. WHILE EARLIER CAMS INDICATED
POTENTIAL CONVECTION WITH THIS LLJ, SO FAR THIS HAS NOT
MATERIALIZED. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS DID DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SATELLITE SHOWS COLDER CLOUD TOPS IN
THAT AREA, BUT MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT OCCURRED.
TODAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS IOWA. IN MANY CASES THE
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE HIGH FOR THE DAY.
SOUTHEAST IOWA WILL HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL TIME TO WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT, SUPPORTED
BY SOUNDINGS WITH 25-35+ KTS THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE HELPS TO PULL HIGHER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. MOST DATA HAS THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA BEFORE
THIS DEVELOPS, HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CLIP PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA. THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS LARGE
HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST
IOWA WITH MLCAPE OF 1000+ J/KG. THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A WEAK LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY SERVE TO PULL IN DEEPER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY. BY THE TIME THE TROUGH REACHES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ON A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH MISSOURI AND SOUTH.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE, COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH. SOUNDINGS
HAVE A BETTER WARM NOSE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT'S MODEL DATA,
HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RIGHT AROUND 0C. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGHER RAIN RATES WITH MARGINALLY COLD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ICE ACCUMULATION, DESPITE WHAT THE GFS
AND NAM WOULD LIKE TO PRODUCE AT THE IA/MN BORDER. A WINTRY MIX
WITH WET FLAKES IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILE AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH VERY LIGHT ICE COULD OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS IOWA ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH THURSDAY, AND THE CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED WINTRY MIX IN NORTHERN IOWA
WITH RAIN CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE LOW WILL LIFT EAST THURSDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION CLEARING THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US REACHES IOWA BY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON TO EVENING. SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE EXTENT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW. RIGHT NOW MODELS PULL THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG INTO THE AREA WITH 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. DRIER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO 50S
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THIS MORNING HAS LED TO BREEZY
NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONALLY GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING, BUT
REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A THIN STRIP OF STRATUS HAS RESULTED IN
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
KOTM WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH MORE MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA (KDSM AND
KOTM) EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO STRATUS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, LIKELY ONLY IMPACTING KOTM.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAGENHOFF
LONG TERM...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...DODSON
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