351
FXUS63 KDMX 051949
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
249 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEASTERN IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. LIGHT SNOW
AND RAIN THEN DRIFTS NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE MINIMAL FARTHER NORTH.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
BY APRIL'S STANDARDS, TODAY HAS BEEN A QUITE PLEASANT DAY SO FAR
WITH SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES IN HE 50S AND SOME BREEZY WINDS.
THESE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
FRONT, A STUNTED LAYER OF INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP, WITH ROUGHLY
200 TO 400 J/KG OF MUCAPE. STEEPER LAPSE RATES, FORCED ASCENT ALONG
THE FRONT, AND SATURATED MID-LEVELS ALL POINT TOWARD SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE RISK, BUT DRY AIR BELOW THE
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME BREEZIER WINDS
BENEATH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS EVENING. EVEN WITHOUT SHOWERS,
BREEZY WINDS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FILLS IN
BEHIND.
ANOTHER PUSH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN OVER THE STATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE
40S ON MONDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN, IT
WILL MEET A STREAM OF WARMER, MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE REGIONS. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THESE TWO AIR MASSES WILL LEAD TO WEAK LIFT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA ON MONDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT RAIN OR A FEW
SNOWFLAKES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR WILL INHIBIT
MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION, WORKING AGAINST RAIN/SNOW CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AND KEEPING PRECIPITATION LIGHT.
THE CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO AIR MASSES WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, AS WARM, MOIST AIR CONTINUES NORTHWARD AND
OVERRUNS THE COLDER, DRIER AIR MASS IN IOWA. AS A RESULT,
FRONTOGENESIS FROM ROUGHLY 850 TO 650 MB WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND MAXIMIZES OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. -20 TO -30 MICROBARS OF LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE
THROUGH THE LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR TOP-DOWN SATURATION AND DYNAMICAL
COOLING OF THE LAYER BELOW AND RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BEGUN TO
TREND UPWARD ON QPF AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS TARGETED BAND, TRANSLATING
TO 4" PLUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BEING PRODUCED BY COBB SNOW RATIO
OUTPUT. WHILE THESE HIGHER END AMOUNTS AREN'T CONSISTENT ACROSS
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME, THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING HAS INCREASED. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UP ACCORDINGLY TO AROUND 1 TO 3" OVER SOUTHWEST
IOWA, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIER
BAND. SNOW THEN LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN AS WARMER
AIR ADVECTS IN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE RAIN
PERIOD APPEARS BRIEF BEFORE SATURATION IS LOST. LIGHT SNOW AND
RAIN WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, BUT WON'T
HAVE NEAR THE LIFT THAT WILL BE PRESENT IN SOUTHWEST IOWA ON
TUESDAY MORNING, KEEPING PRECIPITATION LIGHTER FARTHER NORTH IN
THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
THE WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WILL MEET A MORE AMPLIFIED
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THESE TWO WAVES WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE UP INTO THE STATE,
BRINGING MORE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM, KEEPING THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOW. THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
REMAIN OPEN TO THE GULF IN SOME CAPACITY THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR FOR
AREAS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DEPARTS WEST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ENTIRE STATE OPENS BACK UP TO THE GULF AS
TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO
A MORE MOIST AND ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR SKIES OVER IOWA. WINDS HAVE
BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA EARLY THIS EVENING, IMPACTING KMCW AND KALO. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER AT TERMINALS, HAVE KEPT PROB30 OF SHOWERS
FOR NOW AND WILL AMEND FOR ANY THREATS OF THUNDER. WINDS THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
WATER CONTINUES TO ROUTE THROUGH AREA RIVERS, WITH MANY RIVERS
APPROACHING CREST OR ALREADY ON THEIR WAY DOWN. THE CEDAR RIVER NEAR
CEDAR FALLS REMAINS THE PRIMARY SITE OF CONCERN, WHERE THE CURRENT
LEVEL HAS ALL BUT REACHED MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE IOWA RIVER NEAR
TAMA IS STILL EXPECTED TO NEAR, BUT STAY JUST BELOW MINOR FLOOD
STAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD GIVE RIVERS SOME TIME TO ROUTE WATER THROUGH
THE SYSTEM AND BUILD SOME DEGREE OF CAPACITY IN THE SOILS, BUT
LIKELY WON'T FULLY RECOVER TO PREVIOUS LEVELS PRIOR TO ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK. THEREFORE, WE CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DODSON
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...DODSON
HYDROLOGY...DODSON
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