256
FXUS63 KDMX 071928
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
228 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING.
- WARMER AND BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 35-40+ MPH ARE
EXPECTED. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN IOWA.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
A NARROW BAND OF SNOW FELL ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH 2-4" OF SNOW MEASURED. THIS BAND HAS BECOME
DIFFUSE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR. DRY AIR
HAS UNDERCUT THE PRECIPITATION AND MUCH OF WHAT IS SHOWN ON RADAR IS
NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A TRANSITION OVER TO MAINLY RAIN FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. A FEW SPOTTY REPORTS OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAVE OCCURRED INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ALOFT MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. WITH CONTINUED THETA E
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER AND WINDY WITH DRYING THROUGH THE LOW
LEVELS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WITH CONSISTENT 15-25 KTS THROUGH THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
COLUMN. AS SUCH, EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20-25+
MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35-40+ MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
60S IN NORTHERN IOWA WITH LOW 70S IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IOWA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS AROUND 40-45% AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY GREEN FUELS, THIS SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE MOST
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE DRIER IN THE 35%
RANGE IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND FUELS THERE ARE LESS GREEN, SO ANY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WOULD LIKELY BE IN
THIS PART OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS IOWA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY
WEAK AT UNDER 100 J/KG SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
THE FRONT STALLS OUT SOUTH OF THE IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY INCREASES IN SOUTHERN IOWA AS THETA E
ADVECTION NOSES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE,
HOWEVER THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LARGELY SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEEP 0-
6 KM SHEAR AT 40+ KTS WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
AS SUCH, A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA,
HOWEVER MISSOURI AND KANSAS WITH HAVE THE BETTER INSTABILITY
ENVIRONMENT. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PWATS OF 1-1.5" INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD 0.5-1+" OF RAIN IN SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
IOWA BY FRIDAY MORNING (HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH). HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND KEEP THINGS DRY MUCH OF FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO BUILD OFF TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.
ON SATURDAY DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
WITH PWATS OF 1.5+" SURGING ACROSS THE STATE. A BIG PUSH OF
THETA E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS NOT A TON OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SO SEVERE CHANCES ARE LOW ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN IOWA. THIS BRINGS ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 1+" OF QPF TO
THE AREA. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
REPEATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REACHES THE CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT TO SEE ASSOCIATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AND BEST
ENVIRONMENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON IS BEING UNDERCUT BY DRY AIR AND NOT MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND IN MANY PLACES. THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED
FOR WIDESPREAD, EXPANDING VFR CLOUD COVER. IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
THERE ARE A FEW MVFR OBSERVATIONS. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES
TO SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON CLOUD BASES WILL ALSO COME DOWN.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST SITES THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, WITH SOUTHERN/WESTERN SITES KFOD/KDSM REACHING
IFR CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING DEVELOPING LLWS UNTIL CONDITIONS MIX OUT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
25-35+ KTS ACROSS ALL SITES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
MANY STREAMS HAVE CRESTED WITH AROUND 15 RIVER FORECAST POINTS
REACHING ACTION STAGE AND THE CEDAR RIVER AT CEDAR FALLS IN
MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WHILE OFFICIAL RIVER FORECASTS ACCOUNT FOR
ONLY 24 HOURS OF QPF, BOTH THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS AND THE 120-HR
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SHOW ALL CURRENT LOCATIONS IN ACTION OR
MINOR FLOOD STAGE TO FALL BELOW ACTION STAGE BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO RETURN TO THEIR BASE FLOWS OF EARLY LAST
WEEK THOUGH.
RAINFALL UP TO 1-2 IN WILL FALL WITH A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WHICH MAY TAKE AWAY SOME SOIL CAPACITY AS THE ACTIVE, WET
PATTERN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UP TO A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE, BUT
UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT WITHIN ANY GIVEN BASIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE REMAINS HIGH. RENEWED GENERALLY WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN IOWA WHERE HIGHER
QPF IS EXPECTED, WITH SOME ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.
TRENDS IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAGENHOFF
LONG TERM...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...HAGENHOFF
HYDROLOGY...HAGENHOFF/ZOGG
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