872
FXUS63 KDMX 081125
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
625 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY AND WARM TODAY. GUSTS OF 35 TO AROUND 45 MPH, HIGHEST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IOWA, WHICH RESULTS IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MONITOR
FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
EARLY MORNING GOES-EAST UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CYCLONIC SPIN OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
ONTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE
STATE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WWA) IS
ONGOING AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ARE ALREADY QUITE BREEZY AT 10
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME AS THE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF
MIXED LAYER WINDS NEAR 50 KNOTS THIS MORNING THAT TAPER DOWN TO 40
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN WWA REGIMES, THE
EFFICIENCY OF MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IS LESS THAN IN COLD AIR ADVECTION
SO NOT EXPECTING TO SEE GUSTS REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL MAX.
STILL, THE SAME SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS THAT NEAR 30 MPH,
WHICH IS ALSO NOTED IN MOS GUIDANCE, AND AVERAGE LAYER MOMENTUM
TRANSFER GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BEYOND THE WINDS, ALSO
MONITORING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY AS THE STRONGEST WINDS (CENTRAL/EASTERN
IOWA) ARE OUT OF PHASE SPATIALLY WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(NORTHWESTERN IOWA). THIS RESULTS IN THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX
REACHING THE HIGH CATEGORY OVER WESTERN IOWA TO THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY ELSEWHERE, WITH THIS BEING DRIVEN BY THE WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER TODAY REACHING INTO THE
60S TO LOW 70S, WHICH WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY.
AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES INTO IOWA THIS AFTERNOON, MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS BUBBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL OR
EASTERN IOWA. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO TONIGHT AS IT CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. WHILE THE FRONT REACHES NORTHERN MISSOURI
THURSDAY MORNING, STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP TO GENERATE
STORMS INTO IOWA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MORE THAN AMPLE EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES REACHING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A WIND RISK, BUT THIS SEEMS AT ODDS WITH SOUNDING DATA
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA POINTING TO A SATURATING
PROFILE AND A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION. THERE COULD BE A QUARTER
SIZED HAIL RISK GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THOUGH THAT
MAY HAVE TO BE EARLY ON BEFORE THE PROFILE SATURATES AND LIMITS HAIL
SIZE TO SMALLER STONES. AS MENTIONED, THE PROFILE SATURATES WITH
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. WHILE
COMMON RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA, A BAND OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SEEMS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO COVER ANY LIMITED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LOOK TO MOVE INTO IOWA ON FRIDAY
PUSHING THE FRONT BACK SOUTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL OFFER A PERIOD
OF DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE THAT LASTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IF NOT SOME
PORTION OF SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, A LESS AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF THETA-E
ADVECTION MOVING OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. THIS WILL
BRING SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE STATE WITH THE CHANCES HIGHEST OVER
THE WESTERN HALF. LATEST NAEFS LOW LEVEL SPECIFIC HUMIDITY TOPS THE
90TH OR 97.5TH PERCENTILE AS A PLUME OF RICH, DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SO WHILE THERE WILL BE STORMS AT TIMES FROM
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LOW. ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL SIDE, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
AGAIN BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH IF NOT NEAR RECORD LEVELS WITH GOOD WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MAY LEAD TO EFFICIENT
RAINFALL, THOUGH STORM MOTIONS MAY LIMIT SHORT TERM FLOODING ISSUES
WITH LATEST DETERMINISTIC SHOWING UP TO A SWATH OF 1". AS A BROADER,
MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE LATTER IMPACTS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE BELOW
HYDRO DISCUSSION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS
OF 45-50 KNOTS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER 15Z, KICKING OFF THE START
OF SURFACE GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL FORM IN THE AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KFOD/KMCW FIRST THEN LATER PROGRESSING
EASTWARD TOWARDS KALO/KDSM/KOTM. CEILINGS WITH THESE SHOWERS ARE
UNLIKELY TO REACH MVFR BUT WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED IF THAT
CHANGES. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONT, AND WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM STRONGLY SW TO WEAKLY NW FAIRLY
ABRUPTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LASTLY, LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KOTM
NEAR 02Z WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL
AND SPORADIC.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
MANY STREAMS HAVE CRESTED WITH AROUND 15 RIVER FORECAST POINTS
REACHING ACTION STAGE AND THE CEDAR RIVER AT CEDAR FALLS IN
MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WHILE OFFICIAL RIVER FORECASTS ACCOUNT FOR
ONLY 24 HOURS OF QPF, BOTH THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS AND THE 120-HR
CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SHOW ALL CURRENT LOCATIONS IN ACTION OR
MINOR FLOOD STAGE TO FALL BELOW ACTION STAGE BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO RETURN TO THEIR BASE FLOWS OF EARLY LAST
WEEK THOUGH.
RAINFALL UP TO 1-2 IN WILL FALL WITH A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WHICH MAY TAKE AWAY SOME SOIL CAPACITY AS THE ACTIVE, WET
PATTERN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UP TO A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE, BUT
UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT WITHIN ANY GIVEN BASIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE REMAINS HIGH. RENEWED GENERALLY WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN IOWA WHERE HIGHER
QPF IS EXPECTED, WITH SOME ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.
TRENDS IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR IAZ005>007-016-017-024>028-035>039-047>049.
SHORT TERM...ANSORGE
LONG TERM...ANSORGE
AVIATION...ANSORGE/DE BRUIN
HYDROLOGY...HAGENHOFF/ZOGG
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