423
FXUS63 KDMX 090347
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1047 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 40-45+
MPH. A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS IOWA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MONITOR
FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
A SURFACE LOW SITS NORTH OF IOWA WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THIS WILL PASS ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN STRONG WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH RECORDED
ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA. A HANDFUL OF SITES HAVE EVEN GUSTED 50+ MPH
TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN HANGS UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI.
BY THURSDAY A SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP TO PUSH THIS
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RENEWED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA THROUGH
THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A PLUME OF 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE REACH SOUTHERN IOWA WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE SHEAR MAY HELP
TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA. EVEN SO, MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE DEEPLY SATURATED WITH A SURFACE INVERSION, A FEATURE
ALSO NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SEVERE INTO IOWA, BUT A STRONGER CELL MAY DEVELOP
HAIL. OF GREATER CONFIDENCE IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
AREA WITH PWATS OF 1-1.5" ACROSS THE IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER. A
WIDESPREAD 0.5-1" IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IOWA
WITH PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA SEEING A POTENTIAL 1-2+" BY FRIDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN IOWA THIS WEEK,
ONLY LIMITED HYDRO CONCERNS WITH THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY, SHOVING THE BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH AND
KEEPING THE AREA DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE A LARGE TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE OUT
AHEAD. THIS WILL LIFT ACROSS IOWA ON SATURDAY WITH A SURGE OF THETA-
E ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES INTO
THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME WITH PWATS OF 1.5" AREAWIDE. SOUNDINGS ARE
AGAIN DEEPLY SATURATED AND SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY IS LOW. AN
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 1" OF QPF WITH POCKETS OF 2" IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN US TROUGH WILL
HAVE MADE IT TO THE CENTRAL US, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER.
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN
SHIFTS IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH BY THURSDAY EVENING TO WARRANT PREVAILING -SHRA GROUPS AT
THE TERMINALS, WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR -TSRA AT ALO/DSM/OTM WHERE
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS HIGHER. PERIODS OF MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY AT DSM/OTM LATE THURSDAY,
AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH BROAD TRENDS IN THE 06Z TAFS BUT
EXPECT TO REFINE DETAILS IN LATER UPDATES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
RAINFALL UP TO 1-2" IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN IOWA WITH THE
BOUNDARY HUNG UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN IOWA HAS CAPACITY FOR MOISTURE
GIVEN EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT LARGELY MISSED THAT PART OF THE
STATE, BUT IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM
LATER ROUNDS OF RAIN. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
1+" WILL FALL ACROSS THE STATE WITH HIGHER 2+" POCKETS POSSIBLE.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS ACTIVE WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN
POSSIBLE. HEFS 10 DAY PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE NOTES THAT MANY
SITES HAVE 50% CHANCES FOR REACHING ACTION. GOING UP TO THE 10%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE BRINGS A HANDFUL OF SITES REACHING MINOR
FLOOD. EXACT QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT WILL HAVE NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES TO IMPACT AND THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE
TUNED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAGENHOFF
LONG TERM...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...LEE
HYDROLOGY...HAGENHOFF
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