944
FXUS63 KDMX 121950
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
250 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST. ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY
FIRES THAT START GIVEN THE GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
- PLEASANT CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
UPPER TROUGH AND THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW HAVE MOVED OUT OF
MINNESOTA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THE TRAILING
SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THROUGH THE STATE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST CHANGING WINDS FROM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH, THOUGH ESTHERVILLE HAS REACHED AS HIGH AS A 51
MPH GUST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR A SPS TO COVER THESE GUSTY
WINDS WITH A FEW SITES TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY ON THE
SUSTAINED WINDS BUT ISOLATED GUSTS AS OCCURRED IN ESTHERVILLE. HAVE
HEARD A FEW REPORTS OF BLOWING DUST IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED, BUT ONLY
ISOLATED REPORTS AND NOTHING NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD IN PORTIONS
MAINLY NORTHERN IOWA. LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO NEAR OR
UNDER 1 MILE WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WHERE ANY LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST OCCURS WITH AREAS NEAR OPEN FIELDS THAT WERE
RECENTLY PLOWED THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, THE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR, AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, GIVEN THE GOOD MIXING TODAY HAS RESULTED IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO 20S PERCENT
RANGE IN ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN IOWA. DESPITE THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS, THE GREENNESS PRECLUDES ANY
FIRE HEADLINES, BUT BURNING IS STILL DISCOURAGED IN THESE
CONDITIONS. ON THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, AFTER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED THIS MORNING, AMOUNTS ONLY REACHED TO A
TRACE TO 0.01" WHICH WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WET SOILS/REDUCE THE
BLOWING DUST JUST DISCUSSED. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS CONTINUES
TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVING
FOR THE EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT AND
LEAD TO A BEAUTIFUL DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD BEFORE A SERIES OF WAVES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE, WINDS RETURN TO OUT OF THE SOUTH AND INCREASE WITH
THE THERMAL RIDGE RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
TO TOUCHING 90 FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RETURN OF AMPLE MOISTURE OFF THE GULF AS
DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE 50S IN AT LEAST SOUTHERN IOWA AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY. AS ONE MAY BE ABLE TO GUESS,
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE ALSO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FIRST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INSTABILITY CLIMBS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH STORMS MAY BE OFF TO THE EAST WHERE THE BETTER FORCING IS, AS
ALSO SEEN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. MORE WIDESPREAD
STORM CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THOUGH THERE REMAINS A FAIR BIT OF MODEL
SPREAD. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND SPC IN
PARTICULAR HAS OUTLINED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A 15% FOR DAY
5/SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW DECAYING SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN
IOWA BUT SOUTH OF TAF SITES. SOME VFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERN WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST STILL IN SOUTHERN IOWA
BUT HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN NORTHERN
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA. THESE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 35 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05
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