563
FXUS63 KDMX 312338
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
638 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- FEW LINGERING SHOWERS, ISOLATED NON-SEVERE STORMS, IN NORTHERN
IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONTINUE TO PRODUCE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, BUT THE QUESTION IS IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP. IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP, GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
- MONDAY IS FAVORING DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CAPPING IN PLACE TO
LIMIT IF NOT PREVENT STORMS. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP, A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL OR GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
- HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY, WHICH PUSHES RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WEST OF
THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MORNING RAINFALL HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD WITH
OCCASIONAL STORMS/LIGHTNING. SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS NORTHERN
BLACKHAWK INTO SOUTHERN BREMER COUNTIES HAVE SEEN SOME DECENT
RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 1" WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE REPEATEDLY
TRACKED, BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS OF 1-2"+. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY ENDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA, BUT WILL
CERTAINLY BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS AREA AND SIMILARLY CENTRAL
BUTLER COUNTY FOR ANY HYDRO ISSUES THAT MAY OCCUR SHOULD ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP AND TRACK OVER THIS AREA TONIGHT.
ON THAT NOTE, CLOUD COVER AND THE RAINFALL HAS KEPT CONDITIONS
COOLER IN NORTHERN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA. MEANWHILE,
CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR AND WARM IN WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA. WHILE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S,
IN THE WEST AND SOUTH, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH
DEW POINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S-60S MAKING IT FEEL MUGGY. AS HAS BEEN
DISCUSSED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS NOTED IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALSO SEEN SUNSHINE,
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE EVENING. WITH MINIMAL FORCING IN IOWA AND A CAP SEEN IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WITH MID LEVEL WARM AND DRY AIR, STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
A CERTAINTY. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE A CU FIELD DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH
AND WEST BUT LARGELY NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO TAKE OFF AND
SUSTAIN BEFORE 00Z. THE AREA TO WATCH IS BACK IN EASTERN NEBRASKA
WHERE A BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE STALLED OUT. THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IF THEY CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CAP,
WHICH PER SOUNDINGS, IS NOT AS STOUT AS FURTHER EAST. INSTABILITY IS
PLENTIFUL BUT SHEAR REMAINS WEAKER MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR
STORMS TO MAINTAIN. CAMS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO SOME AGREE WITH
STORMS FIRING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 00-3Z AND MOVING EAST INTO
IOWA AFTER, MAYBE REACHING OUR WESTERN AREA AROUND 06Z BUT WOULD BE
ON A WEAKENING TREND SO CONFIDENCE IN EASTERN EXTENT (SHOULD THESE
STORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP) IS NOT HIGH. TIMING AND THE EXPECTED
WEAKENING TREND MAKE SEVERE STORMS UNLIKELY OVERALL, BUT A STRONGER
STORM COULD HAVE SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. PWATS DO REMAIN OVER 1.5"
SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AND TRACK INTO OUR AREA. STORM
MOTIONS REMAIN SLOW, THOUGH ALBEIT A LITTLE FASTER THAN SAY
YESTERDAY, AROUND 20 KNOTS. QPF GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TOTALS OVER 1" IN EASTERN NEBRASKA/FAR WESTERN IOWA, BUT SHOULD
STORMS MAINTAIN, COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED 1-2"+, MAYBE 2-3" ON THE
HIGH END, BUT THIS HIGH END DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE QUESTIONS
ON STORM MAINTENANCE.
UPPER LOWS OVER MONTANA AND JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
KEEP UPPER RIDING IN PLACE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. AFTER A DRY
MORNING, SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY MOVE IN LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT QPF FIELDS ARE SPORADIC IN
BRINGING MUCH OF ANY QPF INTO OUR AREA (LARGELY TO OUR WEST) WHICH
ALIGNS WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN WEST LATER
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CAMS HAVE VARYING IDEAS OF
KICKING OF STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GLOBAL MODELS
(NAM, GFS) HAVE ALSO STARTED A DRYING TREND LATER MONDAY. NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM TODAY, IF A STORM COULD DEVELOP, IT WOULD BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT WITH VARYING
IDEAS IN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR PRESENT WITH THE GFS/NAM AROUND
30-40 KNOTS AND THE EURO CLOSER TO 25-30 AND MOSTLY OFFSET WITH
THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES FROM THE HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES. THIS
TO SAY SHOULD A STORM GET GOING, IT COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS, BUT TRENDS ARE CERTAINLY ON THE
DRIER SIDE MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
CAPPING OFF THE ATMOSPHERE MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE POTENTIAL THING TO WATCH, HOWEVER, IS WHAT OCCURS
FURTHER WEST IN NEBRASKA TOMORROW NIGHT AND IF ANY STORMS CAN
MAINTAIN INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ACTIVITY FADES BEFORE IT GETS INTO CENTRAL
IOWA (AND EVEN INTO IOWA FOR THE MOST PART). THUS, WE KEEP
ANOTHER CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STORMS MONDAY BUT EVEN MORE SO
THAN TONIGHT, MOST AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A GREAT
LAKES HIGH LOOKS TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
STORM CHANCES RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES MAY WARM FURTHER
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN WITH ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MVFR CLOUDS SKIM KMCW THIS EVENING AS LIGHT SHOWERS LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE VFR ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, THIS HAS TRENDED SOUTH AND IMPACTS TO TAF SITES ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY ON MONDAY MORNING, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND DEGREE OF COOLING WAS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT WIND UNDER 10 KTS WILL BE FROM THE ESE THIS
EVENING, BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN FROM THE ENE ON
MONDAY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAGENHOFF
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