132
FXUS63 KDMX 021952
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
252 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH BREEZY WINDS
POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
BEGINNING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA THEN SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, WITH MORE
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION HAS FULL CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER IN IOWA TODAY, AS CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
SOUNDINGS OVER THE STATE ECHO THIS, SHOWING OVER A 15C T/TD SPREAD
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 350 MB. WITH THE DRY
PROFILES, THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MIXED OUT WELL TODAY ALLOWING FOR
SOME BREEZIER WINDS EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, WITH ANY RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUR HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN IT'S INFLUENCE IN
THE STATE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA
DRY. HOWEVER, THE HIGH WILL BE PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, FLIPPING SURFACE FLOW TO SOUTHERLY AND ALLOWING
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
WITH THESE INCREASING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS, WE'LL
BEGIN TO SEE THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO OUR WEST ALSO WORK
IT'S WAY INTO WESTERN IOWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
REACHES OF THE AREA, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THE
DRY AIR STILL HOLDING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY COULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR
COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT WINDS, BUT SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND STORMS
LIKELY DISORGANIZED. THEREFORE, ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW
ON WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM LOW (LESS THAN 15%) PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY, TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM LOW
PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL HAVE FINALLY PIVOTED INTO
WESTERN IOWA, BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
ORIGINATE IN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A BOUNDARY, BUT
EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION BEING FUELED BY
THE WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND THETA-E ADVECTION NOW PASSING THROUGH THE
STATE. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, PROGRESSIVELY TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE IN PLACE ALL DAY THURSDAY, BUT RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED
AND LIKELY NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT. INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS WELL, WHICH COULD OPEN UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS OF COURSE
WILL DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION, BUT 1000+ J/KG OF
MUCAPE COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT
DURING THE DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25 TO 35
KTS MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF IOWA FOR THURSDAY. PWATS ON THURSDAY
WILL ALSO BE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.6 RANGE, WHICH IS NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF PWAT CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY JUNE. THEREFORE, SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE
MUCH NEEDED GIVEN OUR RECENT DRY SPELL, BUT PROLONGED RAIN IN A
SHORT TIME COULD STILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED PONDING IMPACTS, MAINLY IN
URBAN AREAS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THE 500 MB RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR DRY MID-WEEK CONDITIONS WILL BE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EASTWARD BY THURSDAY NIGHT, TRANSITIONING
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER IOWA TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST TO
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE KEEP PERSISTENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION UP INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO IOWA, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND A COOL FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND
SHEAR ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE LOWER END, BUT WITH
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, CERTAINLY CAN'T
RULE OUT MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
EVENING. LIKEWISE, A HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT (1.6 TO 1.7") WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF EFFICIENT AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AGAIN,
OUR DRY SPELL SHOULD ALLOW US TO HANDLE MOST OF THIS, BUT RAIN
FALLING IN SIMILAR AREAS OVER MULTIPLE DAYS COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BRING WARMER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS OVER IOWA, ALTHOUGH
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES COULD STILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS REPRIEVE LOOKS FAIRLY BRIEF, AS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK COULD SEE ANOTHER WET PATTERN
DEVELOP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY BREEZY OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO
15 KTS, GUSTING TO AROUND 18 TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS AND GUSTS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DODSON
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...DODSON
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