917
FXUS63 KDMX 051156
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
655 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING EARLY THIS MORNING,
BUT BULK OF THREAT IS FURTHER SOUTH IN NORTHERN MISSOURI.
- A LULL IN RAIN AND STORMS BULK OF DAYTIME TODAY, BUT STORMS
RETURN TONIGHT. RENEWED CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
STORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- AFTER A BREAK IN STORMS AND RAINFALL ON SATURDAY, CHANCES
RETURN TO THE STATE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MUCH OF
THE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND A 30-40 KNOT LLJ KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE
SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH RAINFALL RATES OF
UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4" OR MORE IN
SOME LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NORTH
HAVE SEEN SHOWERS/STORMS, IT HASN'T BEEN AS EFFICIENT AS AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FLOOD
WATCH ARE LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BESIDES THE ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS THE OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THE
STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE. THIS CLOUD COVER LOOKS
TO HANG ON FOR AWHILE TODAY AND MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERE RECOVERY FOR LATER TODAY. DO STILL
EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS. BESIDES THE CLOUD COVER, SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A CAP
IN PLACE AND CAMS HAVE STARTED TO KEY IN ON INITIATION HOLDING OFF
UNTIL NEAR TO AFTER 00Z WHEN THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP AGAIN. THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT DRIVER IN THE
LOCATION OF CONVECTION. TONIGHT'S TRAINING STORMS OCCURRED ACROSS
NORTHERN MO WHICH WAS LARGELY NOT CAPTURED BY MOST MODELS OUTSIDE OF
THE RRFS. MANY, THE RRFS INCLUDED, WOULD SUGGEST FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
IS THE MAIN AREA OF STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT CAMS OVERALL VARY FROM
HWY 30 TO NEAR TO SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER. IT'S REASONABLE TO
THINK THERE COULD BE A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THIS BOUNDARY, BUT AS FAR
NORTH AS HWY 30 SEEMS OVERALL UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO SURGING DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE
EVEN 70S. CLEARING (OR LACK THERE OF) MAY ULTIMATELY AFFECT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
BALLOONING MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG BUT WEAKER BULK SHEAR OF 25-30
KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE BOUNDARY. SEE THE SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. FURTHER NORTH, IN THE NORTHEAST SPECIFICALLY, A FEW
STORMS MAY CLIP THIS AREA FROM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN MN/WI.
WILL ALSO NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE HYDRO THREAT WITH THE
RENEWED STORMS TONIGHT GIVEN A SIMILARLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
PWATS 1.5-1.75", WARM CLOUD DEPTHS, AND ALL OF THE RECENT RAINFALL
FROM TONIGHT. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH
FOLLOWING THE COMPLETION OF THE OVERNIGHT RAIN AND WHERE THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO SET UP. SEE THE WPC DAY 1 SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WATCH RISES ON AREA
RIVERS WITH WITHIN BANK RISES ALREADY ONGOING OR LIKELY AND MINOR
FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PER HEFS OUTPUT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA IN
RELATION TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
STALL FOR THE DAY. ANOTHER LULL IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN INTO
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHES NWD.
CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE DETAILS AT THIS RANGE REMAIN LOW, AND
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BETTER
KNOWN IN THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS BETTER CAPTURE THESE
FEATURES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
LIFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHOWERS IN EAST
CENTRAL IOWA. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
BUT OVERALL IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS VFR IS EXPECTED WEST TO EAST MID
MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY. SOME CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
TODAY, THOUGH SOME CLEARING MAY HAPPEN AT TIMES AS WELL. THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS TONIGHT WHEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. HAVE STARTED
WITH PROB 30 GROUPS AT KDSM AND KOTM THOUGH ADJUSTMENTS IN TIME AND
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE IN STORM LOCATION DEVELOPMENT
INCREASES.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ026>028-036>039-
046>050-057>061-070>074-081>083-092>094.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...LEE
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