452
FXUS63 KDMX 061141
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
641 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS END BY DAYBREAK. LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN IOWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE GUSTY
WINDS OR HAIL. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE HYDRO THREAT
WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE SAME AREAS AS RECENT DAYS.
- HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN FOR RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS LARGELY CONTINUE WITH SUNDAY THE
COOLEST DAY AND MID-WEEK LOOKING THE WARMEST WITH MANY AREAS
EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
IT WAS A VERY ACTIVE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN IOWA WITH SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 2" IN SOME
LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION, THESE STORMS WERE EFFICIENT RAINERS WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS RECEIVING 2-4", AND A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND 4-5",
AND AN ISOLATED LOCATION NEAR PLEASANTVILLE WITH A PERSONAL WEATHER
STATION THAT LOGGED NEARLY 6". SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WERE
ISSUED AND THESE AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN IOWA WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR
RAIN DAILY THROUGH MONDAY. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS HYDRO
DISCUSSION, SOILS ARE SATURATED AND PREDISPOSED TO INCREASED RUNOFF,
WITH MANY SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH REDUCED CAPACITY AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN. MANY OF THE SAME AREAS RECEIVED THIS EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TONIGHT, AND UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE NOT DONE YET WITH MORE
RAIN IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY WITH UPPER
RIDGING MOVING IN THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO END BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WITH ANOTHER LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY
NORTH WHICH IS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMEST, IN
THE UPPER 80S. FURTHER SOUTH, CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES DOWN, BUT STILL IN THE MID 80S. DEW
POINTS REMAIN HIGH, IN THE 60S-70S MAKING IT FEEL HUMID AND WITH
THE HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE SOUTH, SENDING FEEL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOESN'T
REALLY START TO KICK IN AGAIN UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT (FAR
SOUTH) INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON (MUCH OF THE AREA) CAMS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN IOWA LIKELY ALONG
A LINGERING BOUNDARY WITH NOT MUCH ELSE FOR FORCING. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG + BUT WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR LESS THAN
20 KNOTS. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE
KEEPING ACTIVITY PULSEY AND LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN, BUT
STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. QPF AMOUNTS ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXPECTED PULSEY NATURE AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1". THIS TYPICALLY WOULD BE VERY MANAGEABLE
BUT WITH IT BEING OVER THE SAME AREAS AS THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS, THE HYDRO THREAT IS HEIGHTENED DESPITE THE LOWER
EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS. WILL CERTAINLY EVALUATE THE NEED FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOOD WATCHES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOULD ANY STORMS
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT, THE MORE FAVORABLE JET IS TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORABLE AND EVEN INCREASES INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAMS AND
GLOBAL MODELS ALL HINTING AT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY MOVING OR DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH (CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IOWA) INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY BLOSSOMS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS DISCUSSED FURTHER
BELOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF INCREASES INTO IOWA,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN IOWA. SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS IOWA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY (500 J/KG) OR SHEAR (20 KTS
OR LESS). THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA, FOLLOWING HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. WITH PWATS NEAR 2” AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS
EXCEEDING 4000M, EXPECT EFFICIENT RAIN FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO
CENTRAL IOWA.
THE UPCOMING WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY, THOUGH FEW WEAK WAVES
SKIMMING THE AREA COULD BRING RENEWED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA. HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
EXPANDS AND SHIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST. WHILE NBM GUIDANCE HAS
ROCKETS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK, THIS SEEMS OVERDONE FROM OVER MIXING AND WITH WEAK
WAVES THWARTING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES. NBM HAS BEEN ON THE
HIGHEST END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES AND
WILL CONTINUE TO NEED NUDGING DOWN UNLESS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
DESPITE THE OVERZEALOUS NBM, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE QUITE
WARM AND REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THE NEXT MORE ORGANIZED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AROUND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA AND WIDESPREAD
VFR CLOUD COVER IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS
WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA THIS MORNING WITH VARIABLE LIGHT WIND AROUND IT. BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. LATE TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFT INTO
IOWA OUT OF MISSOURI. A STRAY STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL IOWA IN THE EVENING, FROM 00-06Z, THEN THE MAIN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND PLACEMENT OF EARLIER ISOLATED
STORMS, SO HAVE KEPT FROM TAFS. HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP A
KOTM FOR THE MAIN ARE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...HAGENHOFF
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