766
FXUS63 KDMX 072341
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
641 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OFF AND ON TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY LEAD TO RENEWED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS.
- AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD WITH A LARGER SYSTEM BRINGING STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONGEST
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH MANY AREAS REACHING 90 DEGREES, THEN COOLING BACK TO THE
LOW 80S TO FINISH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW SITS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, ALLOWING FOR DEEP MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WAVES OF THETA E ADVECTION INTO THE AREA TODAY.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OFF AND ON TODAY. CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO ORGANIZE WITH VERY
LITTLE AVAILABLE SHEAR AND DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDING PROFILES.
DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING
LIGHTNING. SEVERE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW. THE FINAL PUSH OF
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH
CONVECTION TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS EAST. IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
SUPPORTIVE OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL OWING TO PWATS NEAR 2" AND WARM
CLOUD LAYERS OVER 4000 M. THE SCATTERED AND PROGRESSING NATURE
OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE MOST RISK, ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHERN IOWA WHICH HAS MISSED OUT ON MOST RAIN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. IN SOUTHERN IOWA FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CLOSER TO 1"
WITH SOILS MORE SATURATED FROM RAIN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
SHOULD A POCKET OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA,
FLASH FLOODING WILL NEED CLOSE MONITORING.
TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON MONDAY BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THAT HEAT BUILDS INTO TUESDAY WITH
LOW 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WHILE TUESDAY SHOULD
BE MOSTLY DRY, WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A NOCTURNAL MCS
TRACKING ACROSS NEBRASKA TO REACH WESTERN IOWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH BY AROUND SUNRISE,
THOUGH CAMS INDICATE WEAK REMNANTS COULD PASS ACROSS IOWA INTO
MIDDAY. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN THE CLOUD COVER MAY PUT A DAMPER ON
THE HEAT EXPECTED. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE ENVIRONMENT
ON TUESDAY BECOMES DEEPLY UNSTABLE DUE TO INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. IF MCS IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH INTO IOWA THAT
WOULD HELP TO FUEL IT, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THAT SCENARIO LOOKS
UNLIKELY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TUESDAY EVENING, NOSING INTO WESTERN
IOWA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR RENEWED CONVECTION ALONG A LINGERING
OUTFLOW FROM AND MORNING MCS REMNANTS THAT PASS ACROSS IOWA EARLIER
IN THE DAY. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS LOW,
HOWEVER AN ELEVATED HAILER OR GUSTY WIND IS POSSIBLE.
BY WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN US WILL SWING INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH IT, A RETURN OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN LACKING IN THE CURRENT FLOW REGIME.
THAT WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS AND INCREASE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS SET
TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS DEEPLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH 3500-4000+ J/KG
MLCAPE IN PLACE. BETTER SHEAR LAGS THE FRONT, THOUGH 35-40 KTS
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE AND SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS. WITH GOOD SHEAR, DEEP INSTABILITY, AND WELL
CURVED HODOGRAPHS, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY. DETAILS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED AS IT APPROACHES.
THE BOUNDARY REACHES FAR EASTERN IOWA WITH LINGERING SEVERE
CHANCES THERE ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS BACK TO THE LOW 80S TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. ANOTHER
COOL FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOKS ON TRACK
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE NEW ACTIVITY MOVES NORTH FROM
MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
LOCAL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY. MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WIND DURING THE PERIOD UNTIL A BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BRINGING A SWITCH TO
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAGENHOFF
LONG TERM...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...DONAVON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page