603
FXUS63 KDMX 080838
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS
MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-35. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN REMAIN
POSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO RENEWED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS.
- AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD WITH A LARGER SYSTEM BRINGING STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONGEST
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH MANY AREAS REACHING 90 DEGREES, THEN COOLING BACK TO THE
LOW 80S TO FINISH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS IOWA AND SURROUNDING
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT HEADS FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH ARE MAINLY IN EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS
MORNING, CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO EAST OF I-35
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER SOUTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL IOWA.
SINCE MIDNIGHT, RAIN TOTALS IN OUR SOUTHEAST HAVE BEEN AROUND
0.15-0.75 WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH
STORM MOTIONS ARE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, WITH PWATS NEAR 2" AND
MANY AREAS IN SOUTHERN IOWA SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL,
WE'LL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST WHICH IS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL IOWA. THE RAIN WILL
LINGER IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LONGEST THIS MORNING WITH MOST
RAIN ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE WEST TO EAST TODAY BUT WHERE CLEARING BEGINS TO OCCUR IN
THE WEST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHILE
AREAS TO THE EAST REMAIN COOLER WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER
HOLDING ON LONGER, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S. IT WILL FEEL EVEN HOTTER, THOUGH, WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
SENDING FEEL-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S IN THE WEST AND MID
TO UPPER 80S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.
ONCE THE RAIN ENDS IN THE EAST LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON,
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY, MODELS WERE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT OF A
DECAYING MCS REACHING SOME PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS AGREEMENT NO LONGER EXISTS. MANY MODELS
NO LONGER HAVE A MCS, AND THOSE THAT DO VARY IN LOCATION FROM
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NE INTO NORTHERN MO AND COMPLETELY MISSING
US OR RAPIDLY DECAYING BUT STILL CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE WEST.
THE OVERALL TREND IS CERTAINLY LOWER IN A MCS IMPACTING SOME
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
THE MOSTLY DRY POPS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THE DRY FORECAST
HOLDS, TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL SURGE INTO THE 90S AS THE HEAT
BUILDS IN OUR RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. GULF MOISTURE ALSO
RETURNS IN ABUNDANCE RESULTING IN A DEEPLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR REMAINS ON THE WEAKER SIDE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AND MOST CAMS HOLD OFF ON STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE
JET ARRIVES TUESDAY EVENING, AS DISCUSSED BELOW, BUT THERE IS
LITTLE AGREEMENT IN WHEN, WHERE, AND HOW STRONG BUT SOME HINT AT
ANOTHER MCS DECAYING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT
DETAILS ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY REMAIN LOW AND LIKELY
DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE DETAILS WITH THE STRONGER ENVIRONMENT AND
GREATEST STORM CHANCES OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY, AS DISCUSSED
FURTHER BELOW. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE HYDRO THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA, AS
DISCUSSED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, GIVEN THE HIGHLY SATURATED
SOILS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TUESDAY EVENING, NOSING INTO WESTERN
IOWA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR RENEWED CONVECTION ALONG A LINGERING
OUTFLOW FROM AND MORNING MCS REMNANTS THAT PASS ACROSS IOWA EARLIER
IN THE DAY. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS LOW,
HOWEVER AN ELEVATED HAILER OR GUSTY WIND IS POSSIBLE.
BY WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN US WILL SWING INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH IT, A RETURN OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN LACKING IN THE CURRENT FLOW REGIME.
THAT WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS AND INCREASE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS SET
TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS DEEPLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH 3500-4000+ J/KG
MLCAPE IN PLACE. BETTER SHEAR LAGS THE FRONT, THOUGH 35-40 KTS
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE AND SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS. WITH GOOD SHEAR, DEEP INSTABILITY, AND WELL
CURVED HODOGRAPHS, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY. DETAILS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED AS IT APPROACHES.
THE BOUNDARY REACHES FAR EASTERN IOWA WITH LINGERING SEVERE
CHANCES THERE ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS BACK TO THE LOW 80S TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. ANOTHER
COOL FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOKS ON TRACK
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH MVFR TO
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA. EXPECT THESE
CIGS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 INCLUDING KOTM AND KALO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VFR RETURNING LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING VARIABLE AT
TIMES ON MONDAY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ075-085-086-
095>097.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...DONAVON
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