841
FXUS63 KDMX 091148
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN IOWA UNTIL SUNRISE
THIS MORNING.
- SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA THIS
MORNING, THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECREASING
TREND IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS IOWA, WITH VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA. AS FORCING FOR LIFT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH
THE EASTERN ACTIVITY, RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY END WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN IOWA ACTIVITY, WHICH EXTENDS INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI, THERE IS MUCH STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT, PAIRED WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS
NOSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI, AS WELL AS MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO CONTINUE PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA.
OVERALL TRENDS INDICATE THAT WHILE SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN
IOWA, THE DEVELOPING MCS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH INTO
MISSOURI THROUGH THE MORNING, WHERE ANY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WOULD
BE LOCATED. WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING YET, THE FLOOD WATCH OVER
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN IOWA HAS THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED. OF NOTE AS
WELL IS THE INTRODUCTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING, AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT
RAINFALL AND A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD SO
SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. OBSERVATIONS IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ARE ALREADY SHOWING THIS,
AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOULD FADE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY AS CLOUD COVER FURTHER WEST MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE STATE.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND
STORMS GRAZING SOUTHERN IOWA, THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PASSAGE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS MISSOURI TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A LARGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT, NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
COMMON OVER IOWA, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES ONLY A TOUCH COOLER AS
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES PAIRED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL ALLOW FOR
INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG OVERHEAD BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH
AT LEAST WEAK SHEAR THAT COULD DEVELOP POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS
GENERALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING BEFORE DRYING. THE WEAK
SHEAR FORCING WILL GREATLY LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OVERHEAD, WITH CAM SOLUTIONS QUITE VARIED ON
COVERAGE AND LOCATION. ANY STORMS WOULD LIKELY COME UP AND GO DOWN
QUICKLY, WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS FROM COLLAPSING STORMS THE
MAIN CONCERNS, AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER AND INCH IF
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS CAN DEVELOP. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AS CAMS
AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS SUGGEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW, AND THE INCREASING JET INTO THAT AREA AS WELL INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO IMPACT IOWA, OUTSIDE OF A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH, BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER IOWA FRIDAY BEFORE A
HIGH SETS UP THIS WEEKEND PANCAKES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY.
ONCE THE HIGH SETS UP, AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAKING A RUN FOR THE 90S THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
LOW CEILINGS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING AS A
STRATUS DECK SLOWLY MOVES OVERHEAD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THESE CEILINGS LIFT AS THEY
DRIFT SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH, BUT MAY
BE CLOSE TO 3KFT AT KDSM THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG MAY BE
ISOLATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS NORTH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POP UP STORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPMENT OVER
ANY PARTICULAR AREA IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURY
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...BURY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page