160
FXUS63 KDMX 092338
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
638 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW FUNNEL
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.
- PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST IOWA OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN IOWA. TRENDING DRIER FOR SATURDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE FLOW TODAY AND AGAIN
TOMORROW KEEPING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
TODAY, THIS IS MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA
WITH STORMS ALREADY HAVING POPPED UP HERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER
PARAMETER SPACE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE, A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR,
GUSTY WIND, OR SOME LIGHTNING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH THE ACTIVITY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON, AS HIGHLIGHTED WELL BY THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER, WITH SOME LOW
VALUES OF 0-3 MLCAPE (75-150 J/KG) OVERLAPPING WITH AN AXIS OF
SURFACE VORTICITY. COVERED THIS WITH A SPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON,
AND WILL EVALUATE IF ADDITIONAL SPS ARE NEEDED BEYOND. SOME ISOLATED
STORMS MAY POP UP FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN IOWA THIS EVENING, WITH ALL ACTIVITY
WANING BY MID EVENING OR SO WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
WITH THE LLJ POINTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN IOWA MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED. AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY, SCATTERED STORM CHANCES
RETURN TO MAINLY SOUTHERN IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES REMAIN LOW
(AROUND 20% AGAIN) WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE IA/MO
BORDER. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WANE INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE MOST
PART WITH CAMS/MODELS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH ACTIVITY ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHERN IOWA. FAR NORTHERN IOWA MAY
BE SCRAPED BY SOME DISSIPATING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE EARLY BUT OVERALL, FORECAST TRENDING DRIER AFTER THE ACTIVITY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ENDS. THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN
LOW FRIDAY WITH AGAIN THE BETTER PARAMETER SPACE TO OUR SOUTH,
THOUGH CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER
AS THE STRONGER SHEAR OVERLAPS WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY JUST INTO
FAR SOUTHERN IOWA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY REMAIN MORE SEASONAL
AND IN THE 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
DRIVE A WARMING TREND ALONGSIDE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL APPROACH THE MID-80S WITH UPPER 80S
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, MOST OF
OUR CENTRAL IOWA WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S. ALONG WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
IN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BY MIDWEEK, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AS THE DRY SPELL CONTINUES. HEAT INDICES
COULD PUSH MID TO UPPER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DODGED TERMINALS
THUS FAR, AND WILL ALSO DISSIPATE AT THE SAME TIME. MONITORING
FOR FOG POTENTIAL, MAINLY IN NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT. RIVER
VALLEY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE WITH <30% CHANCE OF MVFR AT THIS TIME.
THE DETERMINING FACTOR WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT KDSM. HAVE TRENDED
VSBYS AT KALO AND KMCW LOWER AND INTO MVFR AFTER 10Z AND WILL
EVALUATE FOR WORSE VSBYS.
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN AFTER 12Z AND CUMULUS WILL AGAIN FORM,
WHICH COULD CREATE A BKN MVFR DECK FOR A FEW HOURS AS THEY LIFT.
MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER POTENTIAL NEAR KOTM SIMILAR TO
TODAY'S.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
MAIN HYDROLOGIC FOCUS IS NOW ON RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL WITHIN THE
CEDAR BASIN, ESPECIALLY THE SHELL ROCK AND CEDAR RIVERS. HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRED IN THE UPPER CEDAR BASIN LAST NIGHT, AND
QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CREST AS IT TRAVELS
DOWNSTREAM.
FOR THE SHELL ROCK RIVER, A QUICK RISE HAS OCCURRED DURING THE DAY
AND THE CREST HAS BEEN TRAVELING DOWNSTREAM. IT IS EXPECTED IN THE
SHELL ROCK AREA LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
FOR THE CEDAR RIVER, CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS REFLECT A SHORTER-LIVED
BUT HIGHER CREST, VS. A LONGER-LIVED BUT BROADER CREST. RECOGNIZING
THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF THIS EVENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WFO LA
CROSSE SERVICE AREA, THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY IS PLANNING TO MAKE
SOME EXTRA FLOW MEASUREMENTS WHICH WILL HELP PROVIDE A MORE
COMPREHENSIVE PICTURE OF THE STREAM'S RESPONSE FOR THIS EVENT. THIS
INFORMATION WILL HELP FINE-TUNE DOWNSTREAM FORECASTS FOR EXAMPLE IN
THE WATERLOO-CEDAR FALLS AREA.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05/TDR
AVIATION...JIMENEZ
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG
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