950
FXUS63 KDMX 281729
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RELIEF ARRIVES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (60-80%) RETURN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER IN EASTERN/CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING, THOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT A PASSING
BOUNDARY WILL WORK TO SHUNT THIS COMPLEX AND THE BETTER INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ASIDE FROM THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER IN FAR SOUTHWEST
IOWA THIS MORNING, THE MAIN STORY IS THE END OF THE EXTREME HEAT FOR
CENTRAL IOWA. RELIEF HAS FINALLY ARRIVED AND LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S,
WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, PROVIDING A NOTICEABLE DROP IN
HUMIDITY. WHILE IT WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY, HEAT INDICES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE LOWER 90S... A WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE 110
DEGREE DAY WE SAW YESTERDAY.
A FEW MODELS TRY TO INITIATE A SPOTTY SHOWER OR STORM IN FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING TODAY, BUT LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD CAUSE ANY CONVECTION TO STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
STRENGTH. TEMPERATURES MAY TICK UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS
A WESTERN RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW
LOCATIONS BACK TO THE LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A PATTERN
CHANGE STARTS TO TAKE PLACE. THE 500MB RIDGE THAT IOWA SITS ON THE
PERIPHERY ON BEGINS TO SHRINK AND MOVE TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG-TERM WILL BE COOLER, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE. THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL. THERE ARE
SOME LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE OVERTOP OF THE RIDGE. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT WEST IN NEBRASKA. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH WILL BE BETTER ASSESSED TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT, A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST. THIS LOW WILL DRIVE HIGHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS IT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING WITH IT A COLD FRONT, LEADING
TO MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN WE'VE SEEN TO START THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
TAFS ARE LARGELY FORECAST TO BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
AT KOTM, DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED BUT WITH HEATING, THOSE
CLOUDS WILL RISE TO VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT BEGINNING AFTER 12Z, SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS AT THE 3,500 FT LEVEL.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDR
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...VORST
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