691
FXUS63 KDMX 011947
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
247 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT, MAINLY WEST AND SOME EAST.
- HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
- STORMS RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYNESS WILL KEEP THE 25KT+ GUSTS COMING
UNTIL WE LOSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECOUPLE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE TONIGHT,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN COVERAGE OF
FOG IN WESTERN IOWA AS THIS PART OF THE STATE RECEIVED THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. ANTICIPATE FOG TO BE PATCHY WITH
THICKER FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS. RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE CALM WINDS
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE 50S. AS FOR EASTERN IOWA, WHILE THE MOISTURE
IS MORE FAVORABLE, LINGERING CLOUDS AND WINDS OVER 5KTS WILL LIMIT
FOG COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A BETTER
SETUP FOR FOG.
ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL COAT THE SKY ON SUNDAY, BUT LITTLE OF
IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND. HEIGHT RISES AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY PLEASANT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A SEGMENT OF THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
NATIONAL BORDER AND TILT NEGATIVELY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. WE'LL SEE THE EFFECTS OF ITS COLD FRONT AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY OVER 1000
J/KG SETS UP IN THE WARM SECTOR, BUT WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR LAGGING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY AND PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE 1.5", SO THERE WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL IN NORTHERN IOWA DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AND
TRAINING STORMS. THIS RISK IS CURRENTLY REPRESENTED WITH A
MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.
IOWA WILL STAY IN CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
PLAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KOTM IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS,
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SCATTERED WITH TIME. OTHERWISE THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL BE VFR WITH A FEW CUMULUS DECK. MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT WHICH LOOKS MOST PROBABLE TO THE WEST
OF TERMINALS. CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KFOD AND
PATCHY FOG AT KALO AND KOTM, BUT THE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
ENOUGH THAT THERE ARE NO MENTIONS IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
WHEREVER FOG DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL LIFT INTO A SUB-3KFT CUMULUS
DECK THAT COULD BRING A WINDOW OF MVFR IN THE LAST 6 HOURS OF
THIS PERIOD.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JIMENEZ
LONG TERM...JIMENEZ
AVIATION...JIMENEZ
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