007
FXUS63 KDMX 160757
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
257 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRIER THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY.
- FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
- STRONG STORMS AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING BUT THUS FAR, THE
FOG HAS BEEN MOSTLY TRANSIENT OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH LOWER
VISIBILITIES NOT SUSTAINING. DRIER AIR IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO
FILTER SOUTH INTO IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SWITCH TO NORTHERLY
WIND AND LOWERING DEW POINTS SHOULD HELP DIMINISH ANY FOG OVER
NORTHERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE 2+ INCH
PWATS REMAIN OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO RETREAT SOUTH AND DEEPER INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI BUT THE MAIN FOCUS
THIS MORNING IS THE COMPLEX OF STORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COMPLEX IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE MUCAPE
AXIS, WHICH STILL EXTENDS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. AS THE COMPLEX
MOVES NORTHEAST, THE MUCAPE AXIS WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH, BUT WILL
REMAIN LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO REACH THE FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA IN A WEAKENED STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SETTLE INTO IOWA TODAY RESULTING IN LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. THOSE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MUCH OF MONDAY,
HOWEVER, RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL BRING RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
NORTHERN IOWA BY MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE PLEASANT AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RETURNS AREA-WIDE AGAIN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS WILL BE ANOTHER NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME, IT'S TOUGH TO GET TOO INVOLVED IN THE DETAILS. THAT
SAID, THE TUESDAY STORMS DO SEEM TO HAVE A RATHER HEALTHY
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SPC DOES HAVE A
DAY 4 15% RISK FOR MOST OF IOWA AND WPC HAS PUT OUT A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY. THE PATTERN REMAINS
RELATIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH MID- WEEK AND THEN RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGES WILL BE LOW CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. MOST SITES WILL SEE SOME DEGREE OF MVFR
OR LOW END VFR CEILINGS BEFORE THESE LIFT OR SCATTER INTO VFR
BY MID MORNING. IN ADDITION, RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
ALLOW PATCHY LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AT ALO AND OTM
WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS SHOWN. WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
WILL BE INCREASING TOWARDS 10 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE OVER NORTHERN
IOWA, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THOSE WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL REACH 8 TO 12 KNOTS
AROUND MIDDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...ANSORGE
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