551
FXUS63 KDMX 201922
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
222 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ISOLATED STORMS SKIM NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA FRIDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
- MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND!
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALLOWED FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN IOWA.
FARTHER NORTH A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST,
RESULTING IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MINNESOTA. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE. THE COLD FRONT TRAILS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE EAST, PUSHING ACROSS IOWA
OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. BETTER FORCING WILL BE ACROSS MINNESOTA
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THERE, EXTENDING ALONG THE FRONT. A FEW OF THESE MAY SKIM
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM IS
POSSIBLE, THESE WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA WHERE FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE BETTER PHASED.
MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL THEN BE DRY WITH NORTHWEST FROM HELPING TO
BRINGING LIGHT HIGH LEVEL SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE RIDING ALONG THE WESTERN US RIDGE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING IS
AGAIN MODEST AND FOCUSED LARGELY WEST OF THE AREA, BUT WITH 1500+
J/KG MLCAPE AND 40 KTS OF SHEAR, A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
ANY LINGERING STORMS IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY, SLOWING FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CONTINUING
TO RIDE ALONG THE WESTERN US RIDGE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS IOWA.
A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME RANGE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE GFS FAVORING A SOUTHERLY
TRACK OVER THE EURO NORTHERLY TRACK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER
THESE MAY REMAIN NORTH OF TAF SITES AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ON FRIDAY
MORNING, HOWEVER EXPECT DRY ARE SHOULD PREVENT THIS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12-15Z.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAGENHOFF
LONG TERM...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...HAGENHOFF
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