591
FXUS63 KDMX 050353
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1053 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON A WEAK BOUNDARY
ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA.
- A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN IOWA ON
SATURDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, NOTED AS A WIND SHIFT
IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AS A NARROW LINE OF CLOUDS IN GOES
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL EML IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ON
THIS BOUNDARY IS QUITE ELEVATED. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED, SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THIS
COULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS AS RAIN COOLS
THE COLUMN. WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR IN PLACE THESE STORMS WILL BE
VERY SHORT LIVED AND PULSEY IN NATURE AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST.
ON SATURDAY THE THERMAL RIDGE NUDGES FARTHER NORTH AND WILL PUSH THE
REPETITIVE CONVECTION ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTH AS
WELL. A WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS WITH AN MCS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. THE DECAYING MCS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REACHING NORTHWEST IOWA
SATURDAY MORNING, CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTH. OTHERWISE, THE STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE HEAT WITH HEAT
INDICES OF 100-105 PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA
FOR YET ANOTHER DAY. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS WILL NEED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS TO STAY SAFE IN THE HEAT.
TEMPERATURES COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED
WAVE RIDES OVER THE RIDGE, SINKING FARTHER INTO IOWA WITH MORE
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE SEVERE RISK
REMAINS LOW BUT GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH COLLAPSING
UPDRAFTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN US TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND ORGANIZE,
PUSHING EAST. THIS WILL CREATE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH INCREASED SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS IOWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER, WE'LL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN IOWA, IMPACTING KFOD, KMCW AND
KALO. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN IMPACTS AT KMCW WHERE IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE. FOG DISSIPATES EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST
NORTHEAST.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ033>039-044>050-
057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097.
SHORT TERM...HAGENHOFF
LONG TERM...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...DODSON
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