851
FXUS63 KDMX 011949
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
249 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED BUT ONGOING RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES.
- A FALL-LIKE FEEL RETURNS TO IOWA TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE 40S. SUNSHINE FINALLY RETURNS TO IOWA ON FRIDAY.
- DRY PATTERN SETS UP WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST
FULL WEEKEND AND FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
CENTRAL IOWA WELCOMES OCTOBER ON A SOGGY NOTE, THOUGH MOST OF
YESTERDAY'S AND EARLY THIS MORNING'S RAINFALL HAS LARGELY COME TO AN
END. TOTALS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA GENERALLY RANGED BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FALLING BETWEEN OMAHA AND WATERLOO.
RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AND A CRISP FALL FEEL, WITH WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY REACHING UP TO 30 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ONGOING DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHERN IOWA WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT OVERNIGHT AS
A TRUE AUTUMN AIRMASS SETTLES IN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT
AS CLOUDS CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY. MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA WILL WAKE UP FRIDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. FOR DES MOINES, THIS
MARKS THE FIRST TIME TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED BELOW 50 DEGREES SINCE
MAY 31ST (WHEN THE LOW WAS 47 DEGREES).
FRIDAY
FRIDAY WILL BRING A BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN DAY TO START THE MONTH. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
SIMILAR PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IF FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS MINNESOTA; WHILE SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN IOWA,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. WEAK
FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CAUSE ANY RAIN
ALOFT TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A
REINFORCED PUSH OF DRY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL IOWA,
ELIMINATING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK
OF OCTOBER. BY MID NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TO KFOD, KALO AND KMCW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, REACHING
KDSM BY 21Z. SHOWERS AT KOTM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES UP TO 25KTS
INTO SUNSET. OVERNIGHT, CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE PASSING
COLD FRONT, MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDR
LONG TERM...TDR
AVIATION...TDR
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