433
FXUS63 KDMX 021047
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
547 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- GORGEOUS FALL WEATHER TODAY WITH DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS.
- DRY PATTERN SETS UP WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST
FULL WEEKEND AND FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAD FUNNELED TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEK IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OUT PER GOES-
EAST UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
RAIN TO BE PULLED AWAY FROM THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CLOUDS THAT ARE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING PER NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS RGB. A FEW OBSERVATIONS HAVE REPORTED LIGHT FOG,
BUT LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH JOINED BY DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP ITS OCCURRENCE. COOLER AIR
IS ALSO FOLLOWING WITH THE DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA AS OF 2AM. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE A SPECIAL DAY
DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AS THE
CLOUD VEIL THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE STATE MUCH OF THIS WEEK HAS
FINALLY BEEN REMOVED. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S, WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER. OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHWESTERLY, WHICH WILL ALLOW A FAST MOVING SYSTEM TO SWING
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING APPRECIABLE QG CONVERGENCE OVER THIS REGION WITH
SOME SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA. WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, SATURATION DOES INCREASE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THE FORCING LOOKS TO
BE TEMPORALLY DISPLACED FROM THE FULLER, BUT NOT FULL
SATURATION, OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS. THUS, HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY OVER NORTHERN IOWA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE HIGHER THAN TODAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
SIMILAR PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IF FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS MINNESOTA; WHILE SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN IOWA,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. WEAK
FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CAUSE ANY RAIN
ALOFT TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A
REINFORCED PUSH OF DRY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL IOWA,
ELIMINATING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK
OF OCTOBER. BY MID NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL ROTATE CLOCKWISE
FROM THE NORTH TO FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ANSORGE
LONG TERM...TDR
AVIATION...ANSORGE
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