806
FXUS63 KDMX 151141
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
641 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON, THEN ENDING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING.
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH AND
EAST.
- BECOMING WINDY AND MUCH COOLER BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH GUSTING TO AT LEAST 35-40 MPH AT TIMES,
ISOLATED TO 45 MPH IN NORTH/NORTHWEST IOWA.
- FROST IS LIKELY EARLY SATURDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S.
- GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MORE RECENTLY BEGUN A
SLOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE, WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OCCURRING GENERALLY
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA. ISOLATED AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST SHOW VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR, WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO
DRIZZLE OBSERVED AT THE OFFICE AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS WITHIN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER NORTHERN UTAH/COLORADO, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA WHERE
DEEPER SATURATION THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS NOTED. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO IOWA JUST BEFORE OR AROUND SUNRISE,
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
SYSTEM THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONGER DYNAMICS TO RESULT IN MODERATE
RAINFALL ACTIVITY. VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY OVERHEAD WILL KEEP
CONCERNS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MINIMAL, THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE ON OCCASION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH
EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED AROUND 0.5-1
INCH, THOUGH A FEW SPOTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S TO 60S, COOLEST
NORTH AND WEST AND WARMEST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH THE EVENING, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND A VERY
NOTEWORTHY INCREASE IN NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO
30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY, ISOLATED EVEN TO 45 MPH AND POSSIBLY EVEN
HIGHER OVER NORTH/NORTHWEST IOWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT, WHICH CAN BE MORE
EFFICIENT IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME, BUT LOW STRATUS MAY
HANG AROUND AND LIMIT BETTER MIXING FROM OCCURRING. GIVEN THIS,
THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW BUT CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN NORTH/NORTHWEST IOWA, BUT ANY INCREASE IN
CONFIDENCE COULD MEAN A FURTHER BOOST IN WINDS AND RESULTING
HEADLINE, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP
AROUND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINS PER THE GREATER MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE, MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA
DURING THE MORNING, WITH ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BEFORE
ENDING. THE STRONG PUSH OF COOLER AIR AND LIMITED SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW FOR OTHERWISE CHILLY CONDITIONS, AS HIGHS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 50S ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
EVENING, AS THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE PUSHES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE MAKES IT'S WAY INTO THE REGION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S WITH FROST CONDITIONS LIKELY SO MAKE PLANS NOW TO PROTECT ANY
SENSITIVE VEGETATION! WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO REBOUND AGAIN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW RETURNS. THIS TRANSLATES TO GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S SATURDAY, MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND THEN MONDAY, AND
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TUESDAY-WEDNSDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS A SMALL SYSTEM NEAR TO THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
BUT THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS DRY UNTIL MID TO LATER NEXT WEEK WHEN
THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSENSUS FOR RETURNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING AS LOW
STRATUS SITS OVER ALL SITES AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE, WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES AROUND 1-3 MILES AT
SEVERAL LOCATIONS. RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF INTO THE EVENING AND CEILINGS
SEEING A VERY BRIEF IMPROVEMENT BEFORE ANOTHER STRATUS DECK
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 06Z. WINDS THIS
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL TURN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AS WELL, WITH VALUES UP TO 20-30 KNOTS UP
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
GUSTS.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURY
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...BURY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page