808
FXUS63 KDMX 152345
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS GRADUALLY END SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
THOUGH ADDITIONAL WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- BECOMING WINDY AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST GUSTING TO AT LEAST 35-45 MPH AT TIMES, WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING.
- A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
- GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
NEAR WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN BY THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN WITH LOCATIONS NORTH IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, CENTRAL IN
THE 50S, AND FURTHER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WHERE WINDS STILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, IN THE 60S TO EVEN LOW 70S.
THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS AND
DECREASING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S BUT WILL BE KEPT FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH WITH
MORE MINIMAL CLEARING EXPECTED BETWEEN CLOUDS STARTING TO DEPART
FOLLOWING THE RAIN THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS AROUND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS WE GET THE WRAP-AROUND
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDY, AND IN SOME CASES LIGHT RAIN, TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY NOT BE PLEASANT AS THE STRONG WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THESE WINDS LOOK TO PEAK ON
FRIDAY MORNING SUSTAINED AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH
COMMON, AND SOME GUSTS NEAR TO IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN TO NORTHWESTERN IOWA. CLOUD COVER MAY HELP LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF MIXING AND THUS THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO REVEAL MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST IOWA WITH TOP OF THE MIXED-
LAYER WINDS (WHICH IS ONLY LIKE 15-25KFT EARLY FRIDAY) IN THE 40-50
KNOT RANGE SO CERTAINLY DON'T WANT TO DISCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME 45-55 MPH GUSTS AND THUS A WIND HEADLINE. OVERALL WIND GUSTS
LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND AT THIS TIME
PLAN TO ADDRESS WITH A SPS. FEEL-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S AND ONLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S
AS HIGHS THEMSELVES DOWN'T MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WHERE ANY CLEARING MAY LINGER LONGEST.
WINDS THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
FRIDAY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN CHILLY FOR ANY
FRIDAY EVENING ACTIVITIES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF, SKIES TO CLEAR,
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SATURDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE LOW TEMPERATURES SO MAKE PLANS
NOW TO PROTECT ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION! THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE LEADING
TO BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH, SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TRANSLATING TO GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 50S SATURDAY BECOME
60S SUNDAY-MONDAY AND 70S AGAIN BY TUESDAY. THERE ARE A FEW HINTS OF
A SMALL SYSTEM NEAR THE REGION AROUND MONDAY NIGHT BUT OUR FORECAST
REMAINS DRY UNTIL MID TO LATER NEXT WEEK WHEN THERE IS A BIT MORE
CONSENSUS FOR RETURNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH DETAILS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT
VSBYS FROM RAIN HAVE TRENDED BETTER, SO HAVE REMOVED THOSE
RESTRICTIONS. VFR CIGS WILL PROVIDE SOME INTERMISSION AHEAD OF
MVFR STRATUS IN MINNESOTA. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL RE-COVER ALL
TERMINALS EVENTUALLY, GIVING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EARLY
MORNING AND KEEPING MVFR CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH TIME,
PEAKING IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. 40KT GUSTS ARE MOST
POSSIBLE AT KMCW AND KFOD BEFORE 18Z.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>085-092>096.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...JIMENEZ
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