963
FXUS63 KDMX 161147
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING TOPPING 40 MPH AT
TIMES
- RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH IOWA CURRENTLY WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE AS WELL OVER MINNESOTA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A BROAD AREA
OF STRATUS AND SOME SHOWERS EXTENDING WEST AND JUST BEHIND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS
MORNING WILL BE THE WIND GUSTS AND IF THEY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
MORNING AND MAXIMIZE THIS MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AROUND
35 UBARS/KM. THE PRIMARY PRESSURE HEIGHT RISES WILL BE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE BUT WILL ALSO CLIP ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. THE
MIXED LAYER DEPTH THIS MORNING WHILE THE MAX 925-850 MB WINDS
ARE PASSING BY THOUGH IS LESS CERTAIN. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES
REMAIN MOSTLY SATURATED THROUGH THIS LAYER WITH CLOUD BASES
AROUND 1500 FT AND THIS IS ALIGNING WELL WITH THE BASES
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SOME COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING BUT THAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE MOIST PROFILES DURING
THIS PERIOD. THE ANOTHER SOURCE OF SUBSIDENCE IS THE MID-LEVEL
DESCENT BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY, WHICH IS FURTHER BACK
UPSTREAM AND WILL ARRIVE AS THE MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING. THE CURRENT WIND GUSTS UPSTREAM ARE MOSTLY BELOW 35
KTS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH AREA WITH
RAIN SHOWERS. THOSE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
THIS MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AT THIS TIME, WILL
HOLD OFF ON WIND HEADLINES. MAY NEED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
IF THE HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUE WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS AND WILL
RECONSIDER AN ADVISORY IF IT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD GET SOME
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS OVER NORTHERN IOWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PROFILES SHOULD
QUICKLY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNSET LEADING TO THE WIND FURTHER
DIMINISHING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. A BIG FACTOR IN THE CHALLENGE FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
IS THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WITH A RELATIVELY STEEP
INVERSION JUST 500-700 FT OFF THE SURFACE. THIS TYPE OF A STEEP AND
LOW INVERSION CAN PROVE DIFFICULT FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
OFF TOO MUCH. FACTORING IN THE NEW WET GROUND AND ALSO STILL WARMER,
AND THE GROUND ITSELF WON'T COOL QUICKLY. THE WIND ALSO MAY NOT
COMPLETELY GO CALM WITH THE HIGH CENTER OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST SO SOME
UNCERTAINLY ON THE LEVEL OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT CAN BE
ACHIEVED. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY, BIG PICTURE FOR IOWA, STILL
EXPECT SEVERAL AREAS TO REACH FREEZING OR BELOW, ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST AND WIDESPREAD FROST FOR MOST AREAS. COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RURAL WITH WARMER AREAS IN THE LARGER METROS INCLUDING DES
MOINES WHERE FROST IS EXPECTED EVEN IF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
ACHIEVED. COORDINATED A TRANSITION FROM THE FREEZE WATCH TO A
WARNING AND AS NOTED ABOVE, SOME AREAS MAY NOT REACH FREEZING BUT
THIS WILL BE THE FIRST COLD IMPACTS OF THIS FALL SEASON. SATURDAY
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH AS RETURN
FLOW ARRIVES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF, SKIES TO CLEAR,
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SATURDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE LOW TEMPERATURES SO MAKE PLANS
NOW TO PROTECT ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION! THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE LEADING
TO BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH, SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TRANSLATING TO GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 50S SATURDAY BECOME
60S SUNDAY-MONDAY AND 70S AGAIN BY TUESDAY. THERE ARE A FEW HINTS OF
A SMALL SYSTEM NEAR THE REGION AROUND MONDAY NIGHT BUT OUR FORECAST
REMAINS DRY UNTIL MID TO LATER NEXT WEEK WHEN THERE IS A BIT MORE
CONSENSUS FOR RETURNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH DETAILS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA. A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED AT KMCW/KALO EARLY. THE
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE MVFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST/NORTH WIND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING. GUSTS OVER 35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, A FEW GUSTS OVER 40KTS COULD
OCCUR WITH SHOWERS AND DECAYING SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE GUSTS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL FALL OFF WITH
RAPID DECOUPLING NEAR SUNSET.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ004>007-
015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>096.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ097.
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...DONAVON
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