144
FXUS63 KDMX 161943
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
243 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THIS
EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WERE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY BUT HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15-30 MPH, AND GUSTS TO 25-40 MPH. GUSTS HAVE STARTED
TO COME DOWN IN NORTHERN IOWA AND THE HIGHEST GUSTS AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON WERE IN CENTRAL IOWA. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN CHILLY AS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND FEEL-LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS ONLY IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
TONIGHT WITH EVENING ACTIVITIES EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND FEEL-LIKE TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 30S,
EVEN WITH THE WIND DIMINISHING. YOU'LL CERTAINLY WANT TO TAKE THOSE
JACKETS AND BLANKETS SHOULD YOU BE ATTENDING ANY OUTDOOR EVENTS
TONIGHT!
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL SIMILARLY BE CHILLY AND AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, NEAR TO JUST ABOVE/BELOW
FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IN THE WIDESPREAD 32 DEGREES OR BELOW
TEMPERATURES IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION IS NOT QUITE AS
FAR NORTH AND MOVES OUT QUICKER. THIS HAS DECREASED THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN NORTHERN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
IOWA, THIS MEANS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOONER ALLOWING
FOR WINDS TO BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE LATER OVERNIGHT. THE
FASTER DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH ALSO MEANS WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
RETURN IN MUCH OF THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AS NOTED ON
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THERE IS ALSO A STEEP INVERSION THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THIS TO SAY, WE MAY NOT DROP OFF AS
EFFICIENTLY OR AS LOW AS WE OTHERWISE COULD HAVE. IT WILL STILL BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES MAY ONLY NEAR OR FALL JUST BELOW
FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS AND BE AT OR JUST ABOVE IN OTHERS. RURAL
AREAS HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES TO FALL BELOW WHILE URBAN AREAS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER. KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING AS IS WITH THE CHANCE
THAT THESE NEAR 33 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA MAY BE ABLE TO DIP BACK TO THAT 32 DEGREE
MARK AND ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION IS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED
REGARDLESS.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS AND RESIDENCE TIME OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND START A WARMING TREND AGAIN
AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. AS NOTED,
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE BREEZY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15-30 MPH, THE
HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A CONTINUED WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 60S TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW
WORK WEEK AND THEN CLIMB TO THE 70S BY MIDWEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEMS BENEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE REGION, THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS PLEASANT
AND DRY. RAIN CHANCES THEN START TO RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK OR WEEKEND
WITH DETAILS TO BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS LOW
VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL THEN GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. ANY LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES REMAIN IN PORTIONS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST
IOWA BUT ARE NOT BRINGING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
DECREASE WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS INITIALLY BECOMING LESS THAN
20 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
SLIGHTLY AND TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY MORNING.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ004>007-
015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>096.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ097.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05
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