000
FXUS63 KDMX 171728
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1228 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND BECOMING BREEZY.
- WARMER AND MOSTLY SUNNY AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
- GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA. DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL(CAN'T CALL IT COLD) CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE UNDER THE HIGH. THE
2 AM TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AND EXPECT
SOME UPPER 20S BY DAYBREAK OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN IOWA.
PERHAPS MOST IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS THE EXTENT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES, WHICH EXTEND ALL THE WAY INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TODAY
LEADING THE RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASING THROUGH THE
DAY. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER IOWA WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE
30S. THE DRY AIR IS MORE EFFICIENTLY HEATED ESPECIALLY WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNNY SKIES AND EXPECTED SOLAR INSOLATION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ECLIPSE THE NBM HIGHS FOR TODAY AND BE CLOSER TO
THE 75TH PERCENTILE, HOLDING BACK A BIT FOR SOME LINGERING WET
GROUND FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 15 MPH POSSIBLE CENTRAL IOWA
AND OVER 20 MPH NORTHWEST.
DECOUPLING WILL QUICKLY OCCUR NEAR SUNSET WITH THE WIND DIMINISHING
TO LESS THAN 10 MPH. PERHAPS A FEW POCKETS OF FROST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESIDE BUT OVERALL
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG ENOUGH WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVENT FROST CONDITIONS. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND FROM THE NEW ENGLAND REGION ALL THE WAY SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS.
THIS SET UP WILL KEEP MOISTURE COMPLETELY SHUT OFF FROM IOWA LEADING
TO ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WHILE THE DRY
DEW POINTS REMAIN. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A CONTINUED WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
BEYOND. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 60S TO END THE WEEKEND AND
START THE NEW WORK WEEK AND THEN CLIMB TO THE 70S BY MIDWEEK.
OUTSIDE OF SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK
AS SYSTEMS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE REGION, THE GOING
FORECAST REMAINS PLEASANT AND DRY. RAIN CHANCES THEN START TO
RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK OR WEEKEND WITH DETAILS TO BE REFINED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION, OBSCURATIONS, OR LOW CLOUDS ANTICIPATED. SSW
BREEZES WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES TODAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY, BUT WILL DROP OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS,
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL PICK UP A BIT OVERNIGHT, RESULTING
IN LLWS CONCERNS. THIS WILL BE MINIMIZED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AND MAXIMIZED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, SO HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS
GROUPS AT FOD AND MCW AFTER 05Z BUT NOT AT THE OTHER TERMINALS.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...LEE
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