736
FXUS63 KDMX 191835
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
135 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONALLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- RAIN POTENTIAL (20 TO 30% CHANCE) RETURNS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN IOWA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
BROAD 500 MB RIDGING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND QUIET FOR THE NEAR
FUTURE. PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK, ALBEIT WITH A 1 TO 2 DEGREE WARMING TREND WITH
EACH DAY OF HEATING. NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
SOME SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA. REFS
PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITY LESS THAN A MILE ARE AROUND 30 TO 50%
IN THESE REGIONS, WHILE HREF PROBABILITIES FOR THE SAME
CONDITIONS ARE MORE MUTED AROUND 20 TO 30% OR LESS. OTHER BLENDS
HAVE AN EVEN WEAKER SIGNAL. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS, A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE 500 MB RIDGING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BROADLY SPEAKING, THESE WILL BE UNIMPACTFUL, REALLY ONLY LEADING TO
SLIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND MARGINALLY HIGHER
WINDS AS THEY PASS OVERHEAD. THAT SAID, SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE ALOFT AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING HAS
RESULTED IN A FEW DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS
INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. HOWEVER, A DEEPER LOOK INTO THE SAME MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT THAT TIME INDICATE A RATHER STOUT DRY LAYER BENEATH
SAID SHOWERS. THIS DRY LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MOISTURE REACHING
THE SURFACE, SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE AND
HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND 5 TO 10% TO REFLECT THIS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB RIDGING GENERALLY PERSISTS THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND WARM
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH LATE THIS WEEK WILL HELP RELEASE THE WESTERN CONUS CUTOFF LOW
THAT HAS BEEN BLOCKING OUR PATTERN THUS FAR. THIS AMPLIFIED
TROUGHING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS
REGIONS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, SHOVING THE RIDGE AND
COINCIDENT SURFACE HIGH OFF EASTWARD. THE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN
WILL BRING A BETTER FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND
BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING GENERALLY STAYS NORTH AND WEST OF IOWA.
STILL, SOME RAIN/SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO IOWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE RAIN
CHANCES AREN'T OVERLY HIGH (AROUND 20 TO 30% PER NBM) AND HEAVILY
FAVOR NORTHWESTERN IOWA GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTATINTY WITH HOW
ROBUST THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SO FAR FROM THE PARENT LOW. EVEN IF THE
RAIN DOESN'T COME TO FRUITION, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENTS,
AGAIN OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN IOWA. COOLER TEMPERATURS BEGIN TO
FILL IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ROBUST THE COLD FRONT IS ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE
DAY TODAY, WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
SIGNAL FOR PATCHY, SHALLOW FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING (9Z TO
12Z), MAINLY NEAR KMCW, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DODSON
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...DODSON
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