219
FXUS63 KDVN 141757
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1157 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY.
- QUIET AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND.
- MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK TO AN ACTIVE AND MUCH COLDER
THAN NORMAL REGIME. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
THROUGH SUNRISE THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL
END AND BE REPLACED WITH DRIZZLE. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE DRIZZLE. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS ANY FOG WILL BE PATCHY IN
NATURE.
THE DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO SUNSET.
TONIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAK UP AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS QUIET AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A STORM SYSTEM. LOW TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND TRACK.
THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND TRACK.
INTERESTINGLY, THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC KEEP
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THE ICON MODEL KEEPS SUNDAY
DRY BUT BRINGS IN PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF.
THE ENSEMBLES IS WHERE IT GETS MORE INTERESTING.
MOST OF THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE DRY FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY 1
OR 2 SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION. MANY CMCE MEMBERS ARE DRY BUT THERE
ARE SEVERAL SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF/ICON EPS APPEAR TO
BE EVENLY SPREAD WITH ABOUT HALF BEING DRY AND THE OTHER HALF
SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION.
SO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT HAS A 20-35% CHANCE
FOR RAIN.
THE BETTER SIGNAL WHERE BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE RUNS
AGREE ON RAIN CHANCES ARE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. HERE THE SIGNAL IS
QUITE STRONG WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT A 60-90% CHANCE FOR RAIN.
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DICTATE WHETHER TUESDAY IS
DRY OR HAS LINGERING RAIN ENDING. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODELS, THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR
RAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY DRY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TO A MORE
ACTIVE AND MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL REGIME.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER, A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TO A MORE ACTIVE AND
MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL REGIME OCCURS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE TIMING AND TRACK
OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM PLAY INTO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS STALLS THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM
AND THEN HAS THE COLDER AIR GETTING PULLED IN FROM THE PLAINS.
THE ECMWF/CMC/ICON MODELS DEVELOP A SECONDARY SYSTEM THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THAT BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. THE CMC/ICON KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT DRY WITH THE SYSTEM ARRIVING WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
DELAYS THE SYSTEM UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 20%
CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A 30% CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT EASTERN IOWA
TAF SITES . CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT ABOVE 2000FT AFTER 00
UTC AND THEN LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 6 AND 9 UTC.
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW (<30%) THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER
AFTER 06 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 06 UTC.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
AS MENTIONED IN THE KEY MESSAGES, A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL
OCCUR THE WEEK OF NOVEMBER 17TH TO A MORE ACTIVE AND MUCH COLDER
THAN NORMAL REGIME. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL REGIME POTENTIALLY
MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE END OF NOVEMBER.
THE ANOMALOUS CUT OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE ROCKIES WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE MID-CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONGWAVE
TROF BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ENERGY TOPPING
THE WEAK WEST COAST RIDGE WILL DROP INTO THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE
TROF AND DEEPEN IT.
AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS, THE NAO MEAN IS PROGGED TO GO
STRONGLY NEGATIVE WITH MOST GEFS MEMBERS REMAINING NEGATIVE
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. THE AO MEAN IS PROGGED TO GO
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE WITH MOST MEMBERS REMAINING NEGATIVE THROUGH
THE END OF NOVEMBER AS WELL.
BASED ON DATA FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF-EPS, THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR (WITH THE LARGEST NEGATIVE ANOMALIES) IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 22-25. ALTHOUGH STILL
BELOW NORMAL, THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF TEMPERATURES BEGINNING
TO MODERATE TOWARD THE HOLIDAY AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND AT THE END OF
NOVEMBER.
ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE NOT KNOWN THIS FAR OUT, THE COMING PATTERN
CHANGE BRINGS THE PROSPECTS OF CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEMS. ORIGIN
POINTS COULD BE FROM THE ALBERTA OR SASKATCHEWAN PROVINCES OF
CANADA. IF SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IS PRESENT THEN PRECIPITATION
COULD VERY WELL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT TIMES. HOWEVER, THE
GROUND IS EXTREMELY WARM SO ANY SNOW WOULD MELT ON CONTACT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...COUSINS
CLIMATE...08
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