953
FXUS63 KDVN 152027
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
227 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- DEEP STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
TONIGHT: CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND ABOUT 5-10
MPH. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHICH
IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING. COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, DECIDED TO ADD "PATCHY FOG" FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT A
REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A RETURN FLOW BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
IT WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: DEEP LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO COME OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PULLING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ON A 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LLJ. WIDESPREAD RAIN, POSSIBLY
HEAVY, WILL ARRIVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS ARRIVE. RAINFALL OF 1+ INCHES
IS POSSIBLE AT SOME LOCATIONS. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN A HSLC ENVIRONMENT. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME BUT WE WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL DURING THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AS THE 986 MB CYCLONE TRACKS NORTHWARD
FROM WESTERN IOWA TO MINNESOTA, MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL PLUNGE
INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME-FRAME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS A STRONG UPPER LOW FORMS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST (SIGNS OF WINTER FAST APPROACHING!)
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...HAASE
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