173
FXUS63 KDVN 160007
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
607 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY/MID SATURDAY
MORNING AND COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.
- MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- DEEP STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
TONIGHT: CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND ABOUT 5-10
MPH. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHICH
IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING. COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, DECIDED TO ADD "PATCHY FOG" FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A RETURN FLOW BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
IT WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: DEEP LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO COME OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PULLING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ON A 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LLJ. WIDESPREAD RAIN, POSSIBLY
HEAVY, WILL ARRIVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS ARRIVE. RAINFALL OF 1+ INCHES
IS POSSIBLE AT SOME LOCATIONS. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN A HSLC ENVIRONMENT. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME BUT WE WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL DURING THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AS THE 986 MB CYCLONE TRACKS NORTHWARD
FROM WESTERN IOWA TO MINNESOTA, MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL PLUNGE
INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME-FRAME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS A STRONG UPPER LOW FORMS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST (SIGNS OF WINTER FAST APPROACHING!)
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM,
BUT THIS TIME MOVING IN FROM THE SE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE FOG, BUT IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING TIME FRAME ON SATURDAY.
LATER UPDATES WITH LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY AT BRL, MLI, AND POSSIBLY DBQ.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...UTTECH
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