276
FXUS63 KDVN 160847
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
247 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20%) FOR EVENING SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS.
- STRONG STORM SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AM WILL BRING HEAVY
RAIN AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG.
- PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE TO END THE LONG TERM WITH A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS BRINGING PRECIP TO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WERE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS WAS TRYING
TO MOVE WEST IN THIS FLOW AS AN APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE WEST
BROUGHT HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN WITH
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS GUSTING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. IF WE DIDN'T HAVE THE CLOUDS IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A
MUCH WARMER DAY DUE TO MIXING. THAT SAID, HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS
EVENING, AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK LIKELY.
CAMS AND SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE REFLECTIVITY ALONG
WITH LIGHT QPF. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL FIGHT SOME DRY
AIR, ESPECIALLY AT FIRST. HOWEVER, AS THIS DRY AIR BECOMES LESS
OF AN ISSUE THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL SLOW AND
BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED SCHC (15-20%)
POPS FOR THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE IMPACTFUL.
SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA IN A 10% THUNDER RISK. I CAN'T RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE STRONGER CELLS, BUT MY GUT TELLS ME THAT WE WON'T
SEE ANY THUNDER, SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING, SWINGING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES
OVER OUR AREA. WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA FIRST. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE ACROSS IOWA AS THE WARM
SECTOR PULLS INTO OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. THIS FILLING LOW WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP WEST OF OUR AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS IOWA ALONG WITH THE
THREAT FOR STORMS LATER MONDAY. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG AS A NEAR 10HPA DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AM. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND IN THE WARM
SECTOR.
AS FAR AS PRECIP TOTALS GO, STILL SEE THE MAIN FOOTPRINT OF RAIN
IN IOWA AS OUR CWA SEES THE GRADIENT GO FROM WELL OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN IN THE WEST TO JUST UNDER AN INCH IN OUR EAST. LOOKING
AT PROB EXCEEDANCE OUTPUT FOR QPF, AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
HAVE 60-80% CHANCE FOR SEEING OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN. THERE IS EVEN
A 10 TO 20% CHANCE FOR SEEING OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM CID TO
NEAR PDC. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THE PROB FOR ONE INCH
OF RAIN DROPS TO THE LOW 30% RANGE BY THE TIME YOU GET TO
PRINCETON IL. NONETHELESS, WELL NEEDED RAIN THAT WE WILL TAKE
BEFORE THE GROUND FREEZES THIS WINTER.
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE INTRIGUED WITH THE STONG TO SEVERE STORM
SETUP MONDAY EVENING. THERE ARE FEW THINGS THAT MAKE ME WORRIED
ABOUT HSLC TORNADOES. 1. WE HAVE AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MANY OF OUR TORNADOES OCCUR WITH THIS. 2. THE LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPH SHOWS STRONG CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND IT
WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET CELL TO ROTATE. 3. WINDS WILL STAY
ELEVATED MEANING WE WILL REMAIN MIXED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
A MORE JUICED ENVIRONMENT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. THOSE ARE JUST
THREE LARGESCALE THINGS. LOOKING AT THE CSHIELD LONG RANGE CAMS
THERE IS A CELL THAT TRACKS ACROSS OUR CWA FROM 03Z TO 06Z
TUESDAY AND EVEN HAS SOME UPDRAFT HELICITY. CAPE WILL ALWAYS BE
A QUESTION BUT WE ARE TRENDED FOR HIGHER CAPE FROM LAST NIGHTS
RUN. EVEN IF ITS A COUPLE 100 SBCAPE THAT ALIGNS PERFECTLY WITH
THE SHEAR, THEN IT IS GAME ON FOR HSLC TORNADOES. AS SUCH HAVE
DECIDED TO START MENTIONING STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO
FOR MONDAY. IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO GET STRONGER WINDS IN
DOWNDRAFTS TO SURFACE SO COULD SEE STRONG/SEVERE WINDS EVEN
WITHOUT TOR THREAT.
AFTER THIS, THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW CHANCES TO THE AREA.
A LOOK AT THE CLUSTERS SHOWS WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND THEREFORE LOW CONFIDENCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY ONE OR TWO MEMBERS PRODUCING A
LOT OF SNOW. MOST OF THEM DO NOT HAVE MUCH SNOW, SO AT THIS TIME
IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THAT IMPACTFUL WERE SNOW TO OCCUR, WHICH
IS STILL A BIG IF.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY TO MID SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE SE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE FOG, BUT IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. TEMPOS MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AT BRL AND MLI FOR BRIEF LIFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES (20-30% CHANCE).
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...UTTECH
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