258
FXUS63 KDVN 172319
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
519 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND A
THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS.
- SNOW SHOWERS OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ARE POSSIBLE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST TO EXIT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 6 PM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COME TO
AN END QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR
FOG TONIGHT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
AT 500 MB, A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BY 00 UT TUESDAY. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEEPENING AS
IT LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 09 UTC ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BY 15 (9AM) UTC AND THEN TO NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 BY 18 (NOON) UTC. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BRING THE RAIN TO AN END AND ALLOW FOR
SOME HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, SHOWER
AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. MODEL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY
RANGE FROM 0.25 INCHES IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TO AROUND
0.50 INCHES IN EASTERN CENTRAL IOWA. THE PROBABILITY 0F OVER A
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH 6 PM RANGES FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT
IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES TO THE EAST.
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON MONDAY MORNING AND TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA,
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI WILL TIGHTEN
LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH. THE NBM IS SHOWING PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH <5% PROBABILITY OF
WINDS OVER 40 MPH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT
SHOW WINDS AROUND 38 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS
ALSO CORRESPONDS TO WIND GUSTS UP 35 MPH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
MONDAY NIGHT: DEEP LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO MINNESOTA PULLING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ON A 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LLJ. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS ARRIVE. RAINFALL OF 1+
INCHES IS POSSIBLE AT SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
IN A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AS THE 984 MB CYCLONE TRACKS NORTHWARD
ACROSS MINNESOTA, MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL PLUNGE INTO THE AREA.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME-FRAME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW FORMS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND: GLOBAL MODELS ARE DRY ON SATURDAY BUT THE
GFS HAS A STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. HIGHS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 40S
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS CONTINUES TO SEE A
MVFR STRATUS DECK OVER THEM THIS EVENING, AND THIS WILL MAKE
ITS WAY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE NARROW AND
FALLING ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH 01Z, FROM THE QUAD CITIES TO
CHICAGO, AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY TAF SITE THE REST OF THE
EVENING.
OTHERWISE, AFTER A LARGELY QUIET NIGHT, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
WILL TAKE SHAPE AND APPROACH OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR VISIBILITY WILL SWEEP
NORTHWARD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY,
CONTINUING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE WIDESPREAD RAINS
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF RAINS, LOW CIGS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT. A CONTINUATION OF IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED,
AND POTENTIALLY LLWS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
ERVIN
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN
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