541
FXUS63 KDVN 200506
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1106 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW, LASTING INTO THE EVENING. WHILE LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTS
UPWARDS TO 30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
DESPITE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS EVENING, IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE
TO PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 12 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WE
DID HAVE A REPORT OF SPRINKLES AT THE WASHINGTON, IA AWOS
EARLIER, SO WE HAVE BROADENED OUR CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A QUIET NIGHT AHEAD.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. THIS
IS DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID-AFTERNOON. A
FEW LOBES OF PVA, COLD AIR ADVECTION, AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
SUPPORT THESE CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO
MIX TO AROUND 800 HPA AND FLOW MAGNITUDES NEAR THE TOP OF THE
MIX LAYER PER THE 20.00Z HREF ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOUNDINGS AROUND
35 KNOTS. WITH THIS SAID, WE DID BOOST WIND GUSTS FOR TOMORROW,
WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS MORE LIKELY NOW. WITH THE WIND AND
SNOW, SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE WIND AND
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. THE INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES
TO BE LIKELY, WITH DECENT SURFACE-BASED CAPE, INCREASING
MOISTURE WITHIN THE DGZ, AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT
ALL SIGNS POINT TO ROAD TEMPERATURES REMAINING JUST TOO WARM FOR
RUN-OF-THE-MILL SNOW SQUALLS. NONETHELESS, MOTORISTS SHOULD USE
EXTRA CAUTION ON THE ROADWAYS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND PERHAPS A FEW SLICK SPOTS,
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
TO BE LITTLE, IF ANY, GIVEN SNOWFALL RATES SIMPLY TOO LOW TO
OVERCOME THE RELATIVELY WARMER ROAD SURFACE TEMPS, BUT A
DUSTING ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE IT'S
ALL SAID AND DONE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
TONIGHT... A QUIET NIGHT WILL BE AHEAD OF US, AS THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER SOUTHEAST. A BOUT OF ENERGY WILL GYRATE
AROUND THE LOW LATE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING IN A BAND OF LOW-MID
CLOUDS, MOVING OUT BY DAYBREAK AND ALLOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
START THE DAY TOMORROW. MUCH OF GUIDANCE KEEPS US DRY AS THIS
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT THERE ARE SOME THAT INDICATE THE
CHANCE FOR A DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN AS THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH.
ALTHOUGH, THE LATEST HREF KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THUS, WE WILL FOLLOW THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER
TONIGHT THAN THEY WERE THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AS WELL, WITH WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH.
TOMORROW... AN INTERESTING AND, DARE WE SAY, WINTRY DAY MAY BE AHEAD
OF US. THE UPPER LOW THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GYRATE BOUTS OF ENERGY AROUND,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. WHILE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 40-45
FOR SOME, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERTICAL PROFILE FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE TOMORROW,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA
IN THE MORNING, WE MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME RAIN
MAY MIX IN THROUGH THE DAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
OVERALL, THE AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE BOUT OF ENERGY
BRINGING THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH IN MID-MORNING, GIVING US A
TIMING BETWEEN 10AM-5PM FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS, WITH SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE LINING UP AND HIGHLIGHTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS, OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SNOW SQUALL
OR TWO. THE AREAS MOSTLY FAVORED FOR THIS WILL BE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80, GENERALLY BETWEEN THE HIGHWAYS 20/30 CORRIDORS. GRANTED,
GIVEN THE AMBIENT AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ON THE FLASH FREEZE SIDE, WHEN IT COMES TO SNOW
SQUALLS. RATHER, IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS, WE CAN EXPECT SOME
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH MIXING DOWN, WITH VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. THESE SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ON AND OFF THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING,
WANING AWAY AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY PUSHES OUT TOMORROW
NIGHT.
NOW TO ANSWER THE QUESTION MOST MAY BE THINKING, HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
WE SEE? FORTUNATELY, PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOULD MELT UPON HITTING THE GROUND. IN
THE EVENING, WHEN WE START TO COOL OFF, WE MAY SEE AN INCREASED RISK
FOR SLICK SPOTS ON SIDEWALKS AND ROADS THAT CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WOULD BE LOCALIZED TO THOSE IN THE NORTH,
WHERE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THURSDAY/FRIDAY... THURSDAY, WE WILL REMAIN UNDER SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LOW AS IT CENTERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING BOUTS OF ENERGY NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH CAN
RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AFTER
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOW 40S THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO
THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY, AS THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY CONDITIONS AGAIN.
THAT AFTERNOON, WE CAN SEE WIND GUSTS UPWARDS TO 30-40 MPH ONCE
AGAIN, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FRIDAY, THE LOW
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN CALMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS, GENERALLY LOOKING AT WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.
WEEKEND AND BEYOND... BEHIND THE UPPER LOW, WE WILL BE UNDER
WEAK RIDGING TO NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOING INTO THE START
OF THE WEEK. THUS, WE ARE LOOKING TOWARDS A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEKEND, WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE
LAST FORECAST, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE ON THE HORIZON, GENERALLY
LOOKING AT THE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME, WHICH MAY BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR IT TO MAINLY BE A RAIN EVENT, IF WE SEE
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH, GUIDANCE OUTPUT IS QUITE VARIABLE FOR
THAT TIMEFRAME. THUS, WE WILL REFRAIN FROM FURTHER DETAILS.
GOING INTO MIDWEEK, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE PATTERN WILL BE
WAVIER/MORE ACTIVE, WHICH MAY BRING FURTHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT AREA TAF SITES TONIGHT AS A
WEAK STORM SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN
MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR ARE MAINLY
CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 12 UTC ON WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FORM MANITOBA
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00 UTC WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. PORB30 GROUPS
WERE PLACED AT KCID, KMLI, AND KDBQ TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KBRL.
PERIODS OF LIFR OR VLIFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST INTENSE
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY FALL AS ALL RAIN THEN TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULTZ
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...COUSINS
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