145
FXUS63 KDVN 190500
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1100 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG CLIPPER THURSDAY TO BRING A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF I-80.
- COLDER AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
TONIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BUT THEN
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. ON THE RETURN FLOW, WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN SO CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
THURSDAY: THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS GFS, ECMWF, AND
CANADIAN VERY SIMILAR IN TRACKING A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM
WESTERN ND TO THE IL/WI BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM IS A
BIT FARTHER NORTH TAKING THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS
SCENARIO WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW (5-8 INCHES) WELL
TO OUR NORTH. IN OUR FORECAST AREA, LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND AN INCH IN NW IL ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR, WITH LESS
THAN ONE-HALF INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR NORTHEAST HALF.
NO PCPN IS EXPECTED IN OUR SW HALF. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S IN FAR NW IL TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
THURSDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES GRADUALLY ENDING IN OUR EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING TO 35-40 MPH IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: THIS TIME-FRAME WILL EXPERIENCE
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN
THE 20S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS.
SUNDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY: HERE WE GO AGAIN WITH THE ROLLER-
COASTER RIDE WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. GLOBAL
MODELS BRING ANOTHER CLIPPER ON MONDAY WELL TO OUR NORTH. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE PROSPECTS FOR A
WHITE CHRISTMAS LOOK SLIM TO NONE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NE IA INTO N IL. BRL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WITH VFR CEILINGS INTO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS SOME MVFR CIGS ARE NOT TO FAR AWAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AM AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE WIND DIRECTION GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE
SW TO WSW AND EVENTUALLY WNW. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW AT DBQ FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE PRECIP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DETERIORATING CEILINGS WITH IFR LIKELY AT DBQ. VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...14
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