657
FXUS63 KDVN 210007
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
607 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT, AS LONG AS CLEARING IN THE
NORTH LASTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE UPCOMING
WAVE OF CLOUDS IN THE WEST TONIGHT.
- SATURDAY WILL BE THE ONE COLD DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK AHEAD, AS A
WARMING TREND EXTENDS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF
DECEMBER.
- PROSPECTS FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS REMAIN QUITE UNFAVORABLE.
- MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS CHRISTMAS EVE
AND EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING, BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
RAIN OR A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IF THIS
WERE THE ONLY FEATURE IN PLAY GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW
OVER OUR NORTHEAST 1/2, I'D GO FOR THE DEEP PASS AND FORECAST ZERO
DEGREE TEMPERATURES OVER SNOW, BUT WE DO HAVE AN APPROACHING WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT, AND THAT IS LIKELY TO
SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
POINT, FEEL THE BEST PLAN IS TO GO WITH SINGLE DIGITS OVER SNOW, AND
TEENS TO NEAR 20 OVER OUR SOUTWEST HALF.
SATURDAY, WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, AND AT LEAST THE
MID PORTION OF THE DAY SEEING SUNSHINE, WE SHOULD SEE A BRIGHT,
PLEASANT, BUT COLD DAY IN THE 20S NORTH 2/3 AND LOWER 30S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AND WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS, TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE COOL, BUT MILDER THAN TONIGHT AS LOWS
REACH NEAR 11 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST 1/2.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BRISK, AS WARMER AND MAINLY DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH WILL CONTRAST
TO THE MILDER LOWER 40S SOUTH, AS THE RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AIR
WILL BE NOTICED BY ALL.
FOR NOW, OUR FORECAST KEEPS POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN A
20% POP FOR LIGHT RAIN/MIX MONDAY. THE DOMINANT PORTION OF GUIDANCE
KEEPS THIS CLIPPER NORTH OF THE AREA, AND DRY, WHICH MATCHES OUR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GIVEN THE MILD AIR ALREADY ESTABLISHED AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL TO THE NORTH.
CHRISTMAS CONTINUES TO APPEAR BLOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S...
CHRISTMAS EVE, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN (AND MUCH LOWER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN) WILL BRUSH THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE MORE
NORTHERLY GFS 12Z RUN, WHILE THE EC AND MAJORITY OF NBM MEMBERS ARE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. IN ANY CASE,
THIS IS NOW SHOWING A GOOD SIGNAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND A CONTINUATION
OF MILD AIR. FOR THAT MUCH, THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE MONTH ARE
TAKING ON A DAMP LOOK, WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE NORMALS OF
MID NOVEMBER.
ERVIN
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS, COLD TEMPERATURES, AND PERIODS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...UTTECH
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