316
FXUS63 KDVN 211727
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1127 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHILLY DAY TODAY
WARMING INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR SUNDAY.
- PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
MONDAY MORNING THAT COULD BRING SOME DRIZZLE AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- WARMING TREND INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANCES
SNEAKING INTO THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE FIND THE AREA IN NW FLOW.
THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT THAT WILL LIKELY BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE
MAIN STORY ARE THE COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
NORTH AND LOW 30S SOUTH. TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO
FLATTEN. H85 WAA SLOWLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA BRINGING IN H85
TEMPS AROUND FREEZING FOR DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS WAA WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A WARMER SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN AS TWO CLIPPER LIKE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BEFORE CHRISTMAS EVE. THEN, A SW LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS LEADING TO RAIN
BEING POSSIBLE. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SW LOW,
SO CONFIDENCE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND EVEN PTYPES IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. AFTER THIS, AN EXTREMELY ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROF SLOWLY LUMBERS ACROSS THE AREA,
BRINGING WITH IT MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES. THE MAIN STORY FOR ANY
PRECIP THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THAT EVEN IF ITS BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING LIMITING ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THE WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HAS SLOWED SOME FROM LAST
NIGHTS RUN, HOWEVER, IT STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY
LEAD TO SOME PRECIP. THE NBM DOES NOT HAVE POPS FROM 06Z MON -
18Z MON. DID ADD SCHC POPS AND MADE IT DRIZZLE. ASCENT INCREASES
IN THE LOW LEVELS AS H85 WAA RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT THE
SAME TIME SATURATION OCCURS IN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRIZZLE OR
EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE 00Z NAMNEST
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. TEMPS OVERNIGHT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND COULD MAKE CONDITIONS SLICK MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/22 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08
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