320
FXUS63 KDVN 160547
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1147 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE (15-30%) OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LATE THIS
EVENING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND BEGINS TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 40S ON FRIDAY.
- DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH 60-80%
PROBABILITIES OF VALUES BELOW -15 DEGREES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS SUNDAY-TUESDAY. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY (>80%) OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN SUB 3KFT STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER OK
AND A CHANNELED VORT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. SOME RADAR
RETURNS AND LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN MN WITH THIS
FEATURE. THIS WEAK WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
REST OF TODAY...AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 20S.
TONIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 1000-500MB RH LAYER PROGS STILL SHOW
MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THAT SAID, ENOUGH TOP DOWN SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR COMBINED
WITH WEAK LIFT/OMEGAS IN THE DGZ TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
FLURRIES PRIMARILY IN NORTHWEST IL. THE LATEST CAMS ALSO
SUPPORT THIS IDEA. IF SNOW DOES REACH THE GROUND, A LIGHT
DUSTING MAY OCCUR ON SURFACES CREATING A FEW SLICK SPOTS. IN
ADDITION, WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT USHERING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPS
WILL WARM ABOVE 0C FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE OUR 00Z BALLOON ON
DEC 31ST! WILL START THE DAY OFF MILD IN THE LOWER 20S ON
FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 40S AREA-WIDE, WHICH SHOULD MELT MOST
IF NOT ALL OUR REMAINING SNOWPACK. SOME RAW GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SHOWING MID-UPPER 40S, WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF WE
MIX A LITTLE DEEPER THAN 900MB.
FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN THE WELL-ADVERTISED
ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE CONUS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL 850MB THETA-E PROGS
SHOW THE GREATEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THE MOISTURE SHOULD OUTRUN THE INCOMING
COLD AIR TO KEEP ALL PRECIP AS RAIN. A DPROG/DT OF NBM POPS
SHOWS NOT MUCH CHANGE AND WILL MAINTAIN THE 15-30% CHANCE OF
RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A DRY AND VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES OF 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW -25C IS NOW IN THE
60-80% RANGE! IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT OUR 00Z
TUESDAY SOUNDING SHOWS FOR THIS VARIABLE. FOR REFERENCE, OUR
COLDEST 850MB TEMP IS -29.5C ON 12/24/2022 WITH OUR PERIOD OF
RECORD DATING BACK TO 1995! THE COLDEST DAYS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AT MOST LOCATIONS, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO
POSSIBLE. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOWING 50-80% PROBABILITIES OF
-15 DEGREE WIND CHILLS OR LOWER. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDS AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
IS KDBQ WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FROM 16-22Z/16. LLWS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...HAASE
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