946
FXUS63 KDVN 161717
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1117 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NICE WARM-UP TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
- THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY (>80%) OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
TODAY: THE BRIEF BUT NICE WARM-UP COMMENCES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WILL MELT ANY REMAINING SNOW ON THE
GROUND (WHICH ISN'T MUCH). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BRISK WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TONIGHT: WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S. TOWARDS MORNING THESE WINDS BECOME GUSTY IN OUR WEST WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
FRIDAY: NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT USHERING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM
ABOVE 0C FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE OUR 00Z BALLOON ON DEC 31ST!
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. THE CAR WASHES WILL BE BUSY SO
ENJOY THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES BECAUSE YOU WON'T SEE THIS
AGAIN FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
FRIDAY NIGHT: AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN THE WELL-ADVERTISED
BRUTALLY COLD AIR MASS INTO THE CONUS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL 850MB THETA-E
PROGS SHOW THE GREATEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THE MOISTURE SHOULD OUTRUN
THE INCOMING COLD AIR TO KEEP ALL PRECIP AS RAIN. A DPROG/DT OF
NBM POPS SHOWS NOT MUCH CHANGE AND WILL MAINTAIN THE 15-30%
CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A DRY AND BRUTALLY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE OUR 850 MB TEMPS AT -30C ON MONDAY. FOR
REFERENCE, OUR COLDEST 850MB TEMP IS -29.5C ON 12/24/2022 WITH
OUR PERIOD OF RECORD DATING BACK TO 1995! THE COLDEST DAYS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AT MOST LOCATIONS, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE. IF THERE WAS SNOW COVER THESE READINGS
WOULD BE MUCH COLDER! DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS
OF -15 TO -25 ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. IN FACT, THE
00Z/16 MODEL RUNS SHOWS WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO ALONG
HWY 20 ON MONDAY MORNING! COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
STAY TUNED! BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WE "WARM"
INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR HIGHS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS (CEILINGS) ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA, MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION AND ALSO FURTHER DEVELOP OUT AHEAD WITH HEATING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MORE LOWER CEILINGS POTENTIALLY LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
SNOW MELT CONTINUES TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THOUGH, AS
NOT CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS AND HAVE THEREFORE LEFT OUT
ANY MENTION WITH THE 18Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 15-25 KT TO START THE PERIOD, THEN TURN LIGHT BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WHILE BACKING TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WINDS WILL RETURN TO GUSTINESS AT 15 TO 25 KT FROM THE
SOUTH. BEFORE THIS SURFACE WIND INCREASE HAPPENS LATE TONIGHT,
THERE IS A PERIOD WHEN LLWS IS ANTICIPATED WITH A RAMPING
SOUTHWEST LLJ AND INCREASE OF WINDS TO 40+ KT 1000-2000 FT AGL.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...MCCLURE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page