790
FXUS63 KDVN 162339
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
539 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND BREEZY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-30%) FRIDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SERVICE AREA.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
A GRADUAL EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS IS ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING OF WINDS, AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BUILD INTO THE REGION. SOME HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OBSERVED UPSTREAM WILL ALSO WORK THROUGH OUR SKIES
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS (AIDED BY
SNOWMELT) ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER, AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND THE
SIGNAL IS LARGELY OBSERVED IN THE NAM/WRF MODELS, WHICH TEND TO
HAVE A MOIST BIAS. FURTHER ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY, THE FLOW
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTHERLY ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT, KEEPING GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORSE
FOR SKY COVER AND ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO DIP BACK INTO THE
LOWER/MID 20S WITH DECREASING WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF OR RISE A BIT TOWARD MORNING,
AS WE SEE THE RIDGE DEPART AND A LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME
KICK IN ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN, BUT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PROMOTING
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, BUT
PREDOMINANTLY HIGHER CLOUDS OWING TO DEEPER MIXING AND BOOSTING
HIGHS AROUND 40 NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH WITH 925 HPA TEMPS OF 0C
TO 4C.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (25-40%)
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST SERVICE AREA (SOUTHEAST OF PRINCETON,
IL TO BURLINGTON, IA) POTENTIALLY GLANCED BY SOME FORCING
ATTENDANT TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE LIGHT RAIN, AS ANY MOISTURE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD BEFORE
THE COLD AIR DEEPENS. THAT BEING SAID, WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE MONITOR ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXTENT OF COLD
ADVECTION FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. THIS POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS VERY LOW. LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST SERVICE AREA
(ALONG/NORTHWEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS TO DUBUQUE) WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHALLOW
SHOWERS, BUT LOSS OF IN-CLOUD ICE TO WHERE IT WOULD FAVOR
SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPS AND THUS POTENTIALLY VERY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING HOWEVER, AS
THE NAM IS MORE MOIST THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. NONETHELESS, WILL
WANT TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE TEENS. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS THOUGH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. JUST THE START OF WHAT WILL BE
A BITTERLY COLD STRETCH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A STAGNANT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR HUDSON BAY
CARVING OUT A LARGE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE CONUS. THIS COMBINED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
PROGGED IN THE COLDEST 1% AND NEAR RECORD PER PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOTING THE COLDEST 850 HPA TEMP ON DVN RAOB BEING -29.5C ON
12/24/2022. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LOWS IN SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BELOW ZERO AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 10 BELOW IN SOME LOCATIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AM WHEN THE MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
PROGGED. IN ADDITION, PERIODICALLY BRISK CONDITIONS WITH SURGES
OF COLD ADVECTION AND MIXING OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -15 TO
-25 AT TIMES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY AS
-30 NEAR THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL NECESSITATE COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES.
THE FORECAST IS DRY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE N/NW FLOW.
GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THESE THEY ARE HARD TO
RESOLVE IN THE MODELS AT THIS JUNCTURE, AND AS SUCH THE NBM HAS
A DRY FORECAST. JUST MENTION THIS AS THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING AT LEAST FLURRIES AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW, THUS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
STRONG LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN LLWS DEVELOPING
IN THE 1.0 TO 1.5 KFT AGL LAYER AFTER 06Z/17 AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z/17. WIND GUSTS UP TO 27 KNOTS AFTER 16Z/17 WILL
BRING AN END TO THE LLWS AS DEEP MIXING COMMENCES. THE MODELS
ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP MVFR CIGS BUT THE 2-3 KFT LAYER WHERE
THE MODELS FORECAST IT TO DEVELOP IS EXTREMELY DRY BASED ON THE
IN PROGRESS 00Z UPPER AIR FLIGHT. A TOKEN REFERENCE TO A
POSSIBLE 2-3 KFT AGL CLOUD LAYER WAS PUT INTO THE 00Z TAFS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...08
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