635
FXUS63 KDVN 182302
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
502 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME RELIEF FROM THE BITTER COLD
COMING MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
WITH US EXPANDING IT TO THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER
HEADLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND IN THE
UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES.
- WE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE CRASHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR. THIS NEXT
BOUT OF COLD WILL BE MUCH COLDER, DROPPING MOST INTO THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS AND INTO THE NEGATIVES. THESE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 MPH AND SOME HIGHER
GUSTS, RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM -15 TO -25, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE, BITTER
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SEEN, BUT CURRENTLY AREN'T EXPECTED
TO BE AS LOW AS THE NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN -10 TO -20 FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THIS WAVE, SOME
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, GENERALLY GIVING US CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE NIGHT, PRIOR TO SCATTERING OUT WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THUS, WE WILL REMAIN DRY
TONIGHT AND ONLY HAVE THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TO WORRY ABOUT.
THUS, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AND HAS SINCE BEEN
EXPANDED AREA-WIDE.
UNFORTUNATELY, ASIDE FROM A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER, THERE WON'T BE
MUCH RELIEF FROM THE COLD SEEN TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGHOUT, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-
20 MPH AND GUSTS UPWARDS TO 30 MPH. THUS, WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN
THE NEGATIVE TEENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.
IF OUT AND ABOUT THIS WEEKEND, PLEASE BE SURE TO DRESS PROPERLY AND
AVOID PROLONGED PERIODS EXPOSED TO THE COLD!
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
GOING INTO MIDWEEK, WITH YET AGAIN ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS CURRENTLY
LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST PART OF THIS STRETCH, TEMPERATURES-WISE.
FORTUNATELY, THE WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. ALTHOUGH, ANY
BREEZE WILL GIVE THE AIR MUCH MORE BITE. THUS, WE ARE STILL
FORECASTING WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS -25 TO -30 IN OUR NORTH, AND
-10 TO -15 IN OUR SOUTH. WE WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME, WITH SOME PASSING CLOUDS.
HEADING TOWARDS MIDWEEK AND BEYOND, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
QUITE ACTIVE, WITH SEVERAL WAVES PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE THAT IS THE CASE, OUR MOISTURE WILL BE SEVERELY LACKING. THE
ONLY MODEL THAT CURRENTLY BRINGS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN FOR
PRECIPITATION IS THE GFS ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, THE NICE ASPECT OF
THIS MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS THE INTRODUCTION OF LLVL SOUTHERLY
FLOW, RESULTING IN WARM ADVECTION. THUS, TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME
EVEN TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 30S IN OUR SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. WILL STICK WITH NBM OUTPUT, KEEPING US DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AND JUST INTRODUCING SOME PASSING CLOUDS AS WAVES PASS
THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS 10-20 KT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR ILZ001-
002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MOZ009-
010.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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